By 1876, Jules Verne had written the books he’d be best known for. 150 years later, in 2026, he’s still widely translated and read. Can we predict his popularity after another 150 years, in the year 2176?
This blogpost summarizes a talk I gave at a meeting of the North American Jules Verne Society on June 4, 2026. You may watch the entire talk on YouTube.
Lindy Effect
According to the Lindy Effect, the remaining longevity of a given performer’s (or author’s) success depended on how long that performer had already been popular. The effect got its name for a New York City delicatessen where comedians would gather to talk about how well their shows were doing.
Antifragility
Building on the Lindy Effect, Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote a book titled Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder. He invented the term antifragile to describe things that gain strength from stress. No physical material is antifragile, but concepts, books, and other creative products can be.
If a book receives bad reviews or gets satirized, banned, or burned, that negative feedback can increase its popularity. Taleb stated that a reasonable estimate for the lifespan of an antifragile entity is double its current age. Therefore, since Jules Verne is popular after 150 years, he should still remain popular in another 150 years.
What is a Classic?
Wikipedia’s definition of a classic includes the characteristics: “ability to be reinterpreted, re-translated, abridged and parodied, to seemingly be renewed for later generations.” Clifton Fadiman said, “If you wish to live long in the memory of men, you should not write for them at all. You should write what their children will enjoy.”
The Reader of 2176
All we can say with certainty about 2176 is that it will differ from 2026. If current trends in attention span continue, readers in an information-flooded 2176 may limit themselves to brief snippets like today’s phone texts or AI summaries of longer works. Perhaps the content of books will get transferred by pill, drink, injection, or direct mind-link.
Why Read Verne in 2176?
First, readers of that future year might find Verne’s book titles irresistible. The cadence and imagery of Journey to the Center of the Earth, From the Earth to the Moon, Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Seas, and Around the World in Eighty Days may well carry the same linguistic magic for our future descendants as they do for us.
Though the exploits of Verne’s characters may seem quant and obsolete to them, future readers might retain a nostalgic interest in a time when sectors of the Earth remained unexplored and mysterious. They may enjoy adventures set in a period when submarines, aircraft, and spacecraft were new and untested technologies. Readers may yearn to escape to a time when science brimmed with optimism and lacked a downside.
Recall Fadiman’s advice to write what children will enjoy? Verne’s easy-to-understand plots, sense of optimism, and moments of humor should delight future youngsters as much as those of today.
Prediction
Perhaps my own wishful thinking clouds rational thought, but I believe people will still enjoy Jules Verne’s works in 2176. The Lindy Effect suggests they’ll remain antifragile. By many definitions of “literary classic,” some of Verne’s novels qualify and that implies continued longevity.
Perhaps someone in 2176 will dig up this blogpost and be able to confirm or deny the predictions of—
Poseidon’s Scribe