Yes, my predictions prove false more often than they prove true. But as the adage goes, a scientist is blamed for one falsehood in a hundred truths, while a seer is praised for one truth in a hundred falsehoods. So give this seer a break, will ya?
It’s all a matter of hitting on the right method. I’ve tried crystal balls, tea leaves, tarot cards, astrology, and palmistry, but none of those worked. This year, I realized I should turn to our modern-day version of the Oracle of Delphi—ChatGPT, the artificial intelligence chatbot by OpenAI.
I gave ChatGPT this task: “make 10 predictions about topics or themes science fiction writers will write about in 2024.”
The AI couched its answer by stating that predictions are iffy. Further, it said its last training update occurred in January 2022, so the predictions are based on trends known up to that date. Personally, I think it was just being humble.
With all the caveats out of the way, here’s what we can expect in 2024:
AI Ethics and Rights. As artificial intelligence continues to advance, science fiction writers may delve into the ethical considerations and legal rights surrounding sentient AI beings. This could include questions about consciousness, autonomy, and the responsibilities of creators.
Climate Crisis Solutions. With an increasing focus on climate change, science fiction could explore innovative and speculative solutions to the environmental challenges facing the planet. This might include technologies to reverse environmental damage or new ways of sustainable living.
Neurotechnology and Brain-Computer Interfaces. As developments in neurotechnology progress, science fiction writers may explore the implications of widespread use of brain-computer interfaces. Themes could include mind control, augmented intelligence, and the potential societal impacts of such technologies.
Space Exploration and Colonization. Given the growing interest in space exploration, science fiction could continue to explore themes related to interplanetary travel and the challenges of colonizing other celestial bodies. This may include the societal dynamics of living in space and encounters with extraterrestrial life.
Genetic Engineering and Biohacking. Advances in genetic engineering and biohacking may lead science fiction writers to explore the consequences of manipulating DNA, creating designer organisms, or even the potential for genetic warfare.
Virtual Reality and Alternate Realities. With the evolution of virtual reality, science fiction could depict worlds where the lines between physical and virtual realities blur, exploring themes of identity, addiction, and the consequences of living in immersive digital environments.
Post-Pandemic Societies. In the wake of global events, science fiction writers might explore the long-term societal impacts of pandemics, including changes in governance, healthcare systems, and the dynamics of human interaction.
Quantum Computing and Reality Manipulation. The advent of quantum computing may inspire science fiction narratives centered around the manipulation of reality, parallel universes, and the consequences of unlocking the full potential of quantum technology.
Social Media and Surveillance Culture. With the increasing prevalence of surveillance technologies and the influence of social media, science fiction could examine dystopian futures where privacy is almost nonexistent, exploring themes of control, rebellion, and the impact on individual freedom.
Augmented Reality in Everyday Life. As augmented reality becomes more integrated into daily life, science fiction might explore the societal implications of a world where digital information overlays the physical world. This could include themes of information manipulation, addiction, and the consequences of an increasingly connected reality.
Now you know. The oracle has spoken. By ‘oracle,’ I mean, of course, ChatGPT, not—
We’ve arrived at that time of year again, when I judge how well I did at this time last year in foretelling the attributes of science fiction books in 2023.
In past years, I’ve tried various techniques, but this time I used a sure-fire method—palm reading. Let’s see how well I did:
Prediction: Artificial Intelligence. A continuing trend, yes, but in 2023, we’ll see a twist. Authors will get past the Frankenstein reruns and the cute-robot-is-nobler-than-humans plot. Novels will show us more sophisticated AI, computers with a different order of intelligence, one alien to us.
Prediction: Classics redone in LGBTQ. Authors will explore the contours of the LGBTQ realm by rewriting classic tales, but repopulating them with LGBTQ characters.
Assessment: I’ll call this a fairy accurate prediction, too. The Mimicking of Known Successes by Malka Older is a retelling of Sherlock Holmes mysteries with lesbians in the role of Holmes and Watson.
Prediction: Climate Fiction. CliFi hasn’t run its course yet. Readers want it, and authors will supply it.
Prediction: Private Space Flight. I jumped the gun, er, rocket, in predicting this for 2022. 2023 is the year we’ll see spaceships funded by billionaires without government involvement, for better or worse.
Assessment: It took some hunting, but I found what might be an example. Skeleton Crew by HT Aaron appears to involve private space flight, though I may be wrong about that.
Prediction: Solarpunk. I’m seeing more novels in the coming year with this motif, bringing us sustainable, renewable energy and diverging from capitalism and a colonial mindset.
Prediction: Terraforming. Once seen as an extension of man’s dominion over Earth, terraforming will show its warts in 2023. We’ll see stories of botched terraforming, opposed terraforming, and weaponized terraforming.
Assessment: I’ll claim this as an accurate prediction, too. The Terraformers by Annalee Newitz depicts a terraforming project that missed something important.
Before you congratulate me on my foresight (I know you were about to), maybe you shouldn’t credit my palmistry skills. What’s really improved is my after-the-fact ability to find books that fulfilled my prophesies. For those prediction assessments that cite only one or two examples, it’s clear I didn’t forecast a major trend.
I made no personal predictions last year about how my own writing would fare in 2023. Probably a good thing I didn’t.
Watch this space next week to see my spot-on predictions for the world of science fiction in 2024. Considering my past track record, the law of averages says you’ll be amazed at the prognosticating prowess of—
Every time I turn around, more fascinating authors consent to be interviewed. Today I’m featuring another author from the anthology The Science Fiction Tarot.
Jacob Pérez was born in Ponce, Puerto Rico, but spent most of his young adult life in Boston, Massachusetts. He grew up reading books and gaining an unhealthy knowledge of comics and movies. After graduating from college in 2008, he dedicated his continued education to caring for people. If he couldn’t have superpowers, nursing was the next best alternative.
He spends his time off writing about monsters, spaceships, robots, and the most bizarre creatures. He loves crossing genre boundaries and exploring the complexity of human nature. He now lives in Loomis, California, with his wife, three beautiful kids, and an indifferent cat named Zelda. He’s currently working on expanding his writing portfolio.
Let’s get to the interview:
Poseidon’s Scribe: How did you get started writing? What prompted you?
Jacob Pérez: I started my writing career back in 2009. I’d just graduated from college and was working through my nursing degree. My job, then, was an office assistant position that allowed for a lot of downtime. Around this time, I read Eric Van Lustbader’s The Ninja. It sparked something in me. After reading it, I discovered I wanted to write a novel I would enjoy throughout, as so many of my favorite books had done for me.
I’d always been an avid reader. For as long as I can remember, I would carry around a novel to read during my free time. So, writing was always in the back of my mind. But the reason I waited so long to write was due to a lack of confidence. Growing up in a predominately Spanish-speaking household, the idea of learning to write at a professional level felt like a daunting aspiration. But there I was, with the perfect job and that spark of inspiration to give me the push I needed to start writing.
P.S.: Who are some of your influences? What are a few of your favorite books?
J.P.: I grew up on The Berenstain Bears and R.L. Stine as a child. They were my gateway into my obsession with reading. Unlike many classmates, I enjoyed our assigned book reading list. But my early influences were an eclectic group of writers: Mary Shelley, Victor Hugo, Eric Van Lustbader, Stephen King, Dan Simmons, Frank Herbert, and Orson Scott Card, to name a few. I devoured their books and their series. Some of my favorites include The Last Stand, Hyperion, Dune, Frankenstein, and Ender’s Game. I didn’t gravitate toward one genre. I loved them all.
Since then, my taste in writing has expanded. I’ve found authors like Neil Gaiman, Kazuro Ishiguro, Amal El-Mohtar and Max Gladstone, M. John Harrison, and Jennifer Egan, whose mastery of the English language is awe-inspiring. Picking my favorite story is hard, but if you twist my arm and force me to answer, M. John Harrison’s The Pastel City and Amal El-Mohtar and Max Gladstone’s This is How You Lose the Time War (which I read before the recent tweet) are at the top of my all-time favorite novels.
P.S.: If you won a trip to the fictional world of another author, where would you go and what would you do there?
J.P.: I’ve always been fascinated by space exploration and the many forms executed in science fiction. That being said, I would love to be a crew member of the Wayfarer from Becky Chamber’s The Long Way to a Small Angry Planet. Who doesn’t want to travel on a spaceship with a multi-species crew while creating wormholes to connect distant trade routes?
P.S.: I understand your day job is a nurse. It seems you drew inspiration from that in your short stories “Coterie” and “Code Gray.” Do you plan to continue with medical-related stories, or go in different directions?
J.P.: My two short stories, “Coterie” and “Code Gray,” are a couple of the very first I ever wrote while under a mentorship about four years ago. As a new writer, it was only natural for me to draw inspiration from my day job. Key elements were already there. But as I develop as a writer, I want to step out of my comfort zone. I want to explore the potential that speculative fiction has to offer without overly relying on my day job. I’m sure another medical-related story will eventually want to be told. It’s been a lot of fun writing other stories for now.
P.S.: I gather from your Facebook page that you are (or were) a runner. Do you find yourself thinking about fiction story ideas as you run? If not, when do you get your best ideas?
J.P.: I used to run until I tore my meniscus a few years back. Until that happened, running was a great time for me to develop my stories. Now, I’m juggling toddlers, work, and friends. And while I try to think about my writing constantly, my best ideas appear at night. My phone’s notes are riddled with ideas, phrases, and concepts that pop into my head late at night. It would seem my muse likes to come knocking in that period of half-sleep while I’m trying to turn in.
P.S.: Your bio mentions monsters, spaceships, robots, and bizarre creatures. How did you become interested in writing science fiction?
J.P.: As mentioned above, I became interested in science fiction from my insatiable love of reading. It also stems from my obsession with movies and comic books. My father exposed me to movies like Star Wars, Robocop, Aliens, and Terminator when I was very young. He also introduced me to comic books and their fantastical stories that spanned from Earth to the far-reaching edges of space. I’d like to believe that movie ratings were lost in translation at my household. But in reality, I believe my father just wanted to share his love of science fiction, and ratings be damned.
P.S.: In The Science Fiction Tarotanthology, your story “The Bridge” earns a tarot card labeled “Virtual Reality.” Can you tell us the premise for the settings in the story?
J.P.: My story, “The Bridge,” is set hundreds of years in the future, after humanity flees a dying Earth. An immersive virtual reality program has been developed to alleviate the physiological stressors of prolonged space travel. My main character is a companionship entity within this virtual reality program whose human girlfriend is on the verge of ending their relationship. When I wrote this story, I wanted to explore what would happen if such a character developed real human emotions, but those feelings contradicted its core programming. It also delves into the creator’s motive in creating the program, her legacy, and how it affects the story’s characters. As our technology increases and the debates on AI intensify, the idea that a programmable entity could have feelings is not far-fetched.
P.S.: It appears some of your Puerto Rican background worked its way into your story “The Bridge.” Did your memories of PR make the story easier to write?
J.P.: Yes, this is a perfect example of writing what I know. I love Puerto Rico. I love the rich culture of my people, our traditions, and the way we place a high level of importance on family and family honor. While I’ve never been to that particular observatory in Puerto Rico, I drew sensory descriptions and settings from personal experience. It’s definitely a setting I will use again in future stories.
P.S.: What are the easiest, and the most difficult, aspects of writing for you?
J.P.: There’s an easy aspect to writing? Tell me, please! All kidding aside, the easiest part for me is creating wonderful stories using my words. I love coming up with exciting plots and memorable characters. It’s very rewarding. What I’ve found the hardest is balancing my other obligations in life and finding time to write. Like many writers, I don’t have the luxury of making a living from writing. At least not yet. So family and work come first in my life.
P.S.: What is your current work in progress? Would you mind telling us a little about it?
J.P.: My current work in progress is a Writers of the Future entry. My main character travels via quantum teleportation for the first time and discovers the multiverse. Suddenly, he has the opportunity to find a universe where his wife doesn’t die in a car accident. But chaos ensues when his jumps have unforeseen consequences. It’s a fun story and a little different from the emotionally complex stories I’ve written in the past. The balance in humor, plot, and character development has been a challenge, but it has a lot of potential to make for a great story.
Poseidon’s Scribe: What advice can you offer aspiring writers?
Jacob Pérez: Now, that’s a loaded question. There is so much great advice out there, made by people far more talented and experienced than me. But the one that I live by is one a mentor gave me. Writing is a marathon, not a sprint. We all want to be great writers and publish our stories for the world to read. In our enthusiasm, we forget that it takes time to master any craft. Everyone’s writing experience is different. I’m guilty of comparing myself to others. But it does you a disservice to rush the process. So many factors affect a writer’s journey, and every journey is unique. So, keep your head down, read, write, learn, and figure out what you want to say with your voice. Let that unquenchable need to write and tell stories fill you with perseverance. Because writing is hard, but if that’s what you love and want to do it right, the journey is worth it.
After interviewing several authors whose stories appear in The Science Fiction Tarot, it’s time I interviewed the anthology’s editor. As is the case with many editors, Brandon Butler is also an author.
Brandon Butler is a Canadian and a Maritimer, not always in that order, born and raised in Halifax Nova Scotia. He studied English and Computer Science at Dalhousie University before becoming a winner of the Writers of the Future Contest made profound effects on his early writing. Relocating to Toronto in 2008, he now works in the tech industry while writing and publishing short stories, novels, anthologies and film scripts.
Next, the interview:
Poseidon’s Scribe: How and when did you get started writing fiction?
Brandon Butler: I really think it began by reading ‘clicking’ for me at a young age and going from there. I wanted to be a writer for a long time before discovering how hard it really was! A big step along the way was fanfiction. I wrote a good amount of Star Wars and Star Trek stuff in the early days of the internet to entertain myself and people I met online until one day I thought ‘why not just create my own stuff?’. For me, in a way, it was my first moment of ‘going pro’. And so, it all began.
P.S.: You’ve cited Harlan Ellison and Roger Zelazny as inspirations for your writing. What about those two authors, in particular, do you find compelling?
B.B.: I continue to be in awe in how Roger Zelazny was able to create such unique, epic tales such as the Amber series in so few words. There are other writing styles, but I think it speaks to the power of brevity and how the most important thing is to convey ideas and concepts that will engage the reader.
Although Harlan Ellison was also known for shorter works and even shorter temper, what I find compelling is his sheer power of emotion, and the willingness to pull from the negative side of the spectrum. I sometimes wonder if writers might be a little less willing to engage with anger and hatred than he was. If so, maybe we ought to think about that because as human beings there’s a time for rage just as there’s a time for joy and affection. It must be managed, but it’s all a part of who we are. And the more often you explore an emotion, the better you’ll understand it – or at least that’s what I believe.
P.S.: Do any facets of your ‘day job’ as a computer programmer find their way into your stories?
B.B.: When writing science fiction, it certainly helps! Knowing a little about how computers work and think can be useful when machines become characters in your stories. Once in a while you might run across a new idea to explore in fiction, but I also find it helps a lot in making your technology sound authentic. There’s nothing a little memory deallocation can’t hurt.
B.B.: Unreal. I received word a little over a year before and went to the event in Los Angeles only a couple months after I graduated from Computer Science. It was my first time leaving the Maritimes since I was very small. Getting to meet and learn from authors who I had read, spend time on the other side of the continent from where I’d grown up, and meet so many other writers beginning their careers was a formative experience to say the least. It was like the world I inhabited grew tenfold in a few short weeks.
P.S.: Is there a common attribute that ties your fiction together (genre, character types, settings, themes) or are you a more eclectic author?
B.B.: The latter, really. I try to be as eclectic as possible. Writing chiefly short stories means that you can get more separate stories done in a shorter time, and once I’m done one piece, I usually want to go in an entirely different direction for the next one. That said, I do notice certain themes cropping up in my work more than others. Relations between men and women is a large one (platonic, romantic, antagonistic, and all types in between). Another one is the broader reasons as to why we find ourselves in conflict with one another, and to what degree humans, as a species, may seek instability when things seem peaceful. Religion and the power of mythology also seems to pop up from time to time, although as a second-generation atheist, I’m not a religious person.
B.B.: It’s a story about a Fireman and captive Demon set in a world that’s post-rapture, where hellfire slowly consumes the planet over an extended period of time. Imps, Demons and Wraiths often enter the real world, and gunfire only stings them while water is deadly. That fact raises the importance of the Fire Department in the society that’s been left behind. The pair then work both with and against each other as they try to find the cause of a recent flare of fires that have broken out in the surrounding city.
It’s a story I wrote over fifteen years ago, and for a long time was probably the strongest story I’d written. It’s still one of my absolute best and I was overjoyed to finally sell it.
P.S.: What is your current work in progress? Would you mind telling us a little about it?
B.B.: Work on the anthology caused me to redirect some of my focus, but in about another month I’ll be going back to handful of short stories and a couple screenplays. Two short stories I’m working on right now involve a protagonist unable to leave a semi-sentient tower that no longer wants him, and look at a world after a synthetic takeover where the machines have turned out to be rather less than infallible. And my screenplay is a non-speculative historical biopic set in the French Revolution.
There’s also a novel series about a pair of immortals I need to get back to – I completed the first one after the pandemic but there’s a significant amount of work that needs to be done from the midpoint onwards, as well as starting up the second book once the first is finished to a level at which I’m satisfied.
P.S.: How did you first get involved in editing fiction?
B.B.: The first editing work I did was back in High School for a non-speculative anthology concentrating on the pressures and ramification of war. I and a few other students had an opportunity to work on a ‘real-world’ project, so I’d say that counts as my first experience as an editor. I also worked here and there as both a contributor and editor to my High School and University newspapers, and I served as one of the staff for T.Spec’s Imps and Minions anthology a few years back, helping to select and offer feedback on submissions.
Mainly though, my editorial experience comes from reading my own work, and viewing it with a critical eye that’s as fair as possible. Seeing and correcting issues with what I’ve written has become an experience that’s both time consuming and enjoyable, to the point that it’s one of my favorite things to do. And after I’ve been away from writing for a while, I’ll usually start by editing one of my existing stories to get me back in the authorial headspace.
B.B.: On a Zoom call during the pandemic. It began with a conversation where someone mentioned she had learned how to read tarot, or wanted to. I believe either she or many others in the group tended to be into YA, Harry Potter and that sort of material (I personally tend towards what I personally term as the previous hot trend of late 70s-early 90s horror and dark SF: Stephen King/Dean Koontz or, more lately, Black Mirror), and I jotted down the idea of a tarot card deck for a new generation. As in, one with different cards. Zelazny’s Amber series was probably showing its influence again there with its use of trumps.
Originally it was a story idea and I spent a few months trying to get it to work, but it wasn’t coming together. Finally, I began to conceive of it as an anthology, since it seemed to me the card concept could function exceptionally as a list of contrasting topics – not unlike how the album Dark Side of the Moon tackles its concept of the pressures of modern life.
The last wrinkle was the involvement of Managing Editor Andy Dibble, who was a big part of the early work on the book. We had a conversation while I was still putting the idea together, and he suggested a focus on Science Fiction. Until then I’d been thinking of a speculative anthology with contemporary card themes. His suggestion seemed simpler and straightforward, so naturally I jumped on it. And so, The Science Fiction Tarot was born!
P.S.: People use conventional tarot cards for prediction, self-exploration, or care therapy. Will readers of this anthology know the future, know themselves, feel better, or enjoy some other benefit?
B.B.: Perhaps all four! In knowing yourself you probably know at least some of your future, so doesn’t that make you feel better? And it certainly comes with other benefits! Kidding aside though, I think it’s great that tarot is used in so many multifaceted ways. We created actual decks for our kickstarter backers of just our major arcana and a handful of other cards. Anyone who would want to use our cards to help in anything they do would be fantastic. And some of our cards take direct inspiration from the original tarot, so I can imagine there’s plenty of room to explore tons of possibilities.
P.S.: What plans do you have, if any, to edit future anthologies?
B.B.: Like with my short stories, I tend to want to do something else after finishing a large project. So, no particular plans for more editing in my near future, although I rule nothing out. If something comes along that I want to do, then something comes along. There’s been talk about us doing another project, but it’s just conversation so far.
Ultimately though, I didn’t commit to this project because I wanted to do an anthology – I had an idea that I wanted to do that became The Science Fiction Tarot, which happened to be an anthology. If that distinction makes sense.
P.S.: What advice can you offer aspiring writers or editors?
B.B.: Let your ideas own themselves. Although I find it’s essential to form pictures in your head of what happens in your story or what form your editing project will take, try to sense the natural boundaries of what you have. Instinct and experience help with that, although they take time to develop.
It’s maybe a commentary on that old Andy Warhol quote of getting your 15 minutes of fame: I prefer to think of it as waiting until you have something to say, then saying it and taking as long as you need until you’re done. And then leaving the stage for the next person and giving yourself a break until there’s something else to say. Which there often is. There’s time enough for everything in life, and a big help in working on any project is knowing where you are during its beginning, middle and end.
Thank you, Brandon.
Readers can learn more about Brandon Butler at his website, on Twitter, on Goodreads, and on Amazon. Also check out a previous interview of Brandon by Angelique Fawns of Horror Tree here.
This coming weekend, May 5-7, I plan to speak at DemiCon, the science fiction convention in Des Moines, Iowa. I grew up in Iowa, so it will serve as a homecoming of sorts.
I plead guilty…to violating many laws of science in my writing. But I’m not alone. I’m in good company with many other science fiction writers. Call us the Laser Pistol Gang.
Authors of so-called ‘hard SF’ should adhere to known scientific principles and knowledge, but aren’t above bending or breaking the laws of physics for the sake of a good story.
Mary Shelley really stretched biological science in Frankenstein when her fictional scientist animated a human from dead tissue. Jules Verne knew human astronauts wouldn’t survive the acceleration of a manned projectile launched from a canon in From the Earth to the Moon. H.G. Wells disobeyed temporal causality in The Time Machine. When he wrote Fantastic Voyage, Isaac Asimov understood the impossibility of miniaturizing people. From his medical training, Michael Crichton must have realized not enough intact DNA fragments remain to create the living dinosaurs of Jurassic Park.
These represent a small sampling from SF literature. Don’t get me started on SF movies, which seem to break more laws of science than they obey.
On what charges could the science police arrest me? Consider my rap sheet:
“The Steam Elephant” (from Steampunk Tales, Issue #5 and The Gallery of Curiosities #3). The state of steam and mechanical technology in the 19th Century did not allow for a walking, steam-powered, quadrupedal vehicle.
“Within Victorian Mists.” Everything needed to invent lasers existed in the 1800s except the conceptual framework, so if it had happened, it would have required dumb luck.
“Bringing the Future to You” (from Cheer Up, Universe!). That story contains too many science violations to list, but I meant the tale to be funny.
“Leonardo’s Lion.” Some accounts state Leonardo da Vinci built a walking, clockwork lion. Even if true, it’s doubtful the creation would have supported a child’s weight or traveled over rough terrain, as it does in my story.
“The Six Hundred Dollar Man.” Yes, steam engines existed in the late 19th Century, but no one then could have made one small enough to fit on a man’s back and power the man’s replacement limbs.
“A Tale More True.” Try as you might, you can’t build a metal spring strong enough to launch yourself into space as my protagonist does.
“The Cometeers.” In this story, I violate the same laws Verne did in launching humans to space using a canon. In fact, I used his same canon.
“Time’s Deformèd Hand.” Nobody in 1600 AD built walking, talking automatons powered by springs. However, I did mention the wood came from magical trees.
“A Clouded Affair” (from Avast, Ye Airships!). You couldn’t build a steam-powered ornithopter in the 1800s, and you’d find it difficult even today.
“Ripper’s Ring” Human invisibility remains impossible today, let alone in 1888. Even if it were possible, it would render the subject blind.
“The Cats of Nerio-3” (from In a Cat’s Eye). Evolution allows organisms to adapt to new environments, but neither cats nor rats would likely evolve in such a rapid and drastic manner as my story suggests.
“Instability” (from Dark Luminous Wings). According to legend, a Benedictine monk constructed a set of wings and tested them sometime around 1000 AD. The wings work no better in my story than they would have in reality.
“The Unparalleled Attempt to Rescue One Hans Pfaall” (from Quoth the Raven). Just because Edgar Allan Poe wrote about a balloon trip to the moon didn’t mean I had to repeat his error.
With so much law-breaking going on, how can we hope for an orderly reading society? Must we be forever besieged by the criminal authors of the Laser Pistol Gang?
That answer, I’m happy to report, is yes. Authors write to entertain readers. That’s a writer’s ‘prime directive,’ to steal a phrase. If the writer must bend or break a rule of science to tell a good story, the writer is going to do it.
One key phrase there is ‘good story.’ The better the story, the easier it is for a reader to forgive a scientific flaw. Of course, if you can tell a good story while keeping the science accurate, by all means, do that.
If you aim to join the Laser Pistol Gang, be aware we have a tough initiation ritual. You have to write a story where a law of science gets broken. Not a very exclusive gang, I admit. But it’s a proud, longstanding group. Take it from one of its most notorious members, known by his gang name—
No matter how much a science fiction writer keeps up with science, the writer’s stories will go obsolete.
As science advances, our understanding of the universe changes. A spherical earth replaced a flat one. A sun-centered solar system replaced an earth-centered one. Birds replaced reptiles as closer descendants of dinosaurs. Continental drift replaced an unchanging map.
SF stories based on outdated science seem backward, passe, naïve. Yet we still read them. Why?
When Mary Shelley wrote Frankenstein; or, The Modern Prometheus, she may have thought the technology to animate dead human tissue lay in the near future since Luigi Galvani had caused frog legs to twitch with jolts of electricity. Two centuries later, we still can’t animate dead humans. How silly it seems to have ever thought it possible at the dawn of the 19th Century. Yet we still enjoy Shelley’s novel today.
Jules Verne’s Around the World in Eighty Days astounded his reading audience at such a short duration for a globe-circling trip. Today, astronauts orbit the planet in just over eighty minutes. How quaint to think of an eighty-day circumnavigation as short. Yet we still enjoy Verne’s novel today.
H.G. Wells’ story The War of the Worlds gave us invaders from Mars. Today we can’t imagine fearing an attack from inhabitants of that planet. How pathetic to think people once swallowed that premise. Yet we still enjoy Wells’ novel today.
Why do we readers find these outdated, naïve, obsolete books—and others like them—still readable? Because science fiction isn’t only about science.
True, readers of SF prefer stories in which authors adhere to the science at the time of writing. But as decades pass, readers know the progress of science may render a work of fiction obsolete. They forgive all of that for the sake of a good story.
They want to read about human characters struggling to achieve a goal, to win a prize, to survive. To live means to suffer, but also to strive against and despite that suffering. The struggle reveals the human qualities of bravery, ingenuity, perseverance, loyalty, love, and others. These timeless truths persist no matter how much science morphs our understanding of the cosmos.
You may shake your head, chuckle, or even sneer at the obsolete notions in SF stories, ideas since debunked or overturned by later discoveries. But remember, while looking down your nose, science fiction is more about the fiction than the science.
I encourage you to suspend your scientific skepticism and just enjoy the tale, follow the spinning of the yarn. Set aside the transitory and obsolete parts and appreciate the unchanging, permanent parts.
Maybe, in the end, the SF obsolescence problem isn’t a problem after all, for you or for—
Though I’ve tried and failed to predict future science fiction trends before, practice makes…well, better. I used the wrong techniques, that’s all. It’s obvious to me now—you can’t see the future in crystal balls, tea leaves, tarot cards, or astrology charts.
You need to read palms. Chiromancy—that’s the foolproof way. My hands have touched so many science fiction books during my life, it should have been obvious to look there for what’s coming in 2023. I had it all along, right in the palm of my hand.
As I gaze at the length and curvature of the lines and the fleshiness of the seven mounts on my hands, it all becomes clear. Some of my predictions repeat those of previous years, but that only means a trend continues or re-emerges in 2023. Here are the types of science fiction books you can expect next year:
Artificial Intelligence. A continuing trend, yes, but in 2023, we’ll see a twist. Authors will get past the Frankenstein reruns and the cute-robot-is-nobler-than-humans plot. Novels will show us more sophisticated AI, computers with a different order of intelligence, one alien to us.
Classics redone in LGBTQ. Authors will explore the contours of the LGBTQ realm by rewriting classic tales, but repopulating them with LGBTQ characters.
Climate Fiction. CliFi hasn’t run its course yet. Readers want it, and authors will supply it.
Mars. The Red Planet is in again. We’ll see books featuring the fourth rock from the sun.
Private Space Flight. I jumped the gun, er, rocket, in predicting this for 2022. 2023 is the year we’ll see spaceships funded by billionaires without government involvement, for better or worse.
Solarpunk. I’m seeing more novels in the coming year with this motif, bringing us sustainable, renewable energy and diverging from capitalism and a colonial mindset.
Terraforming. Once seen as an extension of man’s dominion over Earth, terraforming will show its warts in 2023. We’ll see stories of botched terraforming, opposed terraforming, and weaponized terraforming.
There they are—rock solid predictions you can take to the bank. Or, more correctly, the bookstore. As you peruse the New Releases section of bookselling websites or stores, seeing novels on those topics, you’ll say “I’ve really got to hand it to—
If only we could write great SF by following a step-by-step process, or a connect-the-dots diagram, or a mathematical equation.
I seem to recall Isaac Asimov once said a good story maximizes the emotional impact on the reader. That definition starts out resembling an equation, but trails off into the unquantifiable chaos of human emotion.
NASA scientist Christine Corbett Moran did a nice mathematical analysis of what she enjoys about SF. She chose an interesting metric. First, she noted the point at which she became engaged enough in the book that she had tofinish it. She divided the number of pages left after that point by the story’s total length. At the very least, it’s a good measure for determining how early a story grabbed her interest. She called the parameter engagement.
I tried a different approach to quantifying good SF. I listed twelve attributes I thought important (engaging protagonist, intriguing setting, interesting style, etc.) and performed a pair-wise analysis on them. This required comparing every attribute to each of the others to determine importance. Yes, it’s tedious, and yes, it forced me to make hard choices, but such are the hardships I endure for my readers.
My resulting list, from most important to least, is as follows:
Logical Plot. Events must make sense in a cause-effect relationship.
Engaging Protagonist. I have to care about the main character, and some lesser ones.
Difficult Problem/Ingenious Solution. The problem should be important and appear impossible. The solution, unexpected and elegant.
Consistent (or Explained) Motivations. The characters shouldn’t say or do things out-of-character. Or, if they do, I need to know the reason for the deviation.
Believable Science. I can tolerate some stretching of science, but give me enough convincing techno-babble to make it seem plausible.
Intriguing and Well-described Setting. Make your world fascinating and immerse me in it. Explore the implications to help it seem vivid and real.
Plot Twists. The unexpected turn, the jaw-dropping surprise. A few of these keep me reading on.
Interesting and Distinct Writing Style. If you choose words well, if your story flows like a stream with interesting ripples and eddies, I’ll follow you anywhere.
Symbolism, Inside Jokes, and Easter Eggs. I’m a sucker for this stuff. I don’t always get them, but when I do, I feel like I’ve broken a secret code.
Humor. Not all stories need humor, and not all writers pull it off well, but it’s a plus.
Message. Don’t lecture me with a message or morale. Still, I like it when I finish a story and a day later realize what the author was really saying.
Relevance to My Life. It’s nice when a character thinks and acts like me, but that’s not necessary for me to enjoy the story.
Your list of attributes would be different from mine, and even if some items match, the order of your list would be different. That’s why one reader’s “great!” is another’s “meh.”
Sorry, I don’t know the equation for writing a great science fiction story. If it exists, and if top SF authors know it, they aren’t posting it on their websites.
It’s possible, too, that our elusive equation might include terms like luck and timing, both largely out of the writer’s control.
Perhaps there’s no use searching for an equation to write great science fiction. Maybe it’s better to spend your time trying to write better stories. That’s the nonmathematical goal of—
Yes, it’s true, not all of my previous year’s predictions have proven accurate. But some have. Rest assured, though. I’ve abandoned the flawed methods I used back then. Those crystal balls, tea leaves and tarot cards are for amateurs.
I spent all of 2021 working on a special astrological chart for science fiction literature. After all, it’s only natural to turn to the stars for scifi trends, right? Here are my predictions for 2022:
Games and Virtual Reality. This recent trend will continue in 2022 as authors explore the landscape of these settings. Moreover, readers will enjoy the escapism aspect of these stories.
UFOs/UAPs. As the government promises to release data on UFOs or Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, scifi authors will capitalize on the public’s interest in these sightings.
Pandemic. After predicting this last year, I realize I was a year ahead of myself (it happens, in this prognostication biz). 2022 will be the year for pandemic scifi. Expect bizarre diseases with weird symptoms.
Post-pandemic. As we emerge from the COVID-19 Pandemic, scifi writers will give us tales of humanity returning to normal after devastating pandemic diseases.
Private space exploration and tourism. Another example of me misreading the tarot cards. It wasn’t 2021, but will be 2022 when we read scifi novels featuring billionaire-funded space travel, both for tourism and exploration.
Humor. We’ll see a welcome surge in funny scifi, just in time to meet the public’s need for a lighter mood.
CliFi. Many readers and scifi writers share concerns about climate change, which will inspire new novels about how humanity copes.
AI. Artificial Intelligence will continue to prompt the scifi of 2022 as it has for years now. I predict stories involving the whole spectrum of AI, from specialized AI capable of one type of task, to general AI similar to human intelligence, all the way to superintelligence.
Personal Predictions
As a bonus, here are two prophesies involving me:
The North American Jules Verne Society will publish its first anthology of short stories, titled Extraordinary Visions: Stories Inspired by Jules Verne. I’m on the editorial team.
My collection of short stories about the future history of seasteading, titled The Seastead Chronicles, will be published in 2022.
A year from now, you’ll be amazed at how such accurate predictions were even possible. You’ll be begging for a copy of my secret scifi astrology chart and the instructions for using it. You’ll be kicking yourself for having ever doubted—
