Would You Trust a Robot to Care for Grandma?

Many of those who reach old age don’t enjoy the condition much. Those who tend to them, their caregivers, often wish they could do something else with their time.

A few years ago, I and (mostly) my wife, served as caregivers for my mother-in-law. As a scifi writer, I wondered if technology might help ease the burden for other caregivers someday.

I wrote a short story, “Its Tender Metal Hand,” about a caregiver robot of the near future. That story appears in the new anthology by Cloaked Press, Spring into Scifi, now available.

The Need

With human lifespans lengthening and the large Baby Boom generation reaching old age, the need for caregivers grows daily. Worsening the problem, the current labor shortage reduces the supply of potential workers in the field. The recent deaths of actor Gene Hackman and his caregiver wife, Betsy Arakawa, showcased the importance of the caregiver role.

The Tasks

A caregiver becomes a jack-of-all-trades, though few tasks rate high in difficulty—for humans. A good caregiver should:

  • Remind about, and provide, medication;
  • Navigate the patient around the home and yard;
  • Provide companionship via conversation;
  • Play games;
  • Perform necessary housework;
  • Clean and bathe the patient;
  • Monitor symptoms; and
  • Administer first aid if necessary.

The ideal, more advanced, caregiver might also:

  • Lift, reposition, and physically move the patient;
  • Perform medical tasks such as taking vital readings, and drawing blood;
  • Conduct physical therapy; and
  • Conduct psychological therapy.

The Current State

No single robot exists today that performs all those tasks. Some robots perform one or a few of the functions, but a true, general purpose caregiver robot awaits future development.

Today’s caregiver robots include: Aibo by Sony, ASIMO by Honda, Baxter by Rethink Robotics, Care-O-Bot 4 by Fraunhofer IPA and Mojin Robotics, Dinsow Mini 2 by CT Robotics, ElliQ by Intuition Robotics, Grace by Hanson Robotics, Human Support Robot (HSR) by Toyota, Mabu by Catalia Health, Mirokaï by Enchanted Tools, Moxi by Diligent Robotics, Nadine by NTU Singapore, NAO by Aldebaran Robotics, Paro by Japan’s National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Pepper by Aldebaran Robotics, Pria by Pillo Health and Stanley Black & Decker, Ruyi by NaviGait, and Stevie by Akara Robotics.

The Difficulties

Robots have advanced in capability, but still struggle with tasks humans find easy, and excel at some things people find problematic.

Two examples of the latter category occur to me. As mentioned in my previous blogpost, a robot will listen with patience to repeated re-tellings of the same story, and a sturdy robot could lift a heavy patient without spinal strain.

Also, certain tasks, even if robotically possible, present serious consequences if done wrong. For safety reasons, substantial testing must occur before permitting robots to perform medical tasks or to lift patients.

Perhaps the most elusive task for a caregiver robot, the last one to be achieved, will be to exhibit a truly human connection, a deep, sympathetic friendship bond.

Fictional Treatment

Movies have explored the concept of caregiver robots in various ways. Bicentennial Man and I, Robot touch on the idea. Big Hero 6 and Robot and Frank delve deeper, with caregiver robots integral to their plots.

I’m unfamiliar with two other caregiver robot movies: Android Kunjappan Version 5.25 or its remake, Koogle Kuttappa.

My story, “Its Tender Metal Hand,” features a general-purpose caregiver robot capable of most of the tasks mentioned above. However, it lacks an emotional bond, an understanding of the human condition.

But maybe it can learn.

Perhaps an advanced, capable caregiver robot lies in the future for—

Poseidon’s Scribe

Time to Spring into Scifi

Welcome to Spring! Starting today, you can Spring into Scifi by purchasing the new anthology by Cloaked Press, available here. The book contains one of my short stories.

My Story

My tale, “Its Tender Metal Hand,” concerns an aged man, Maleko Koamalu, whose remaining family can’t care for him.

They pay for a caregiver robot.

Maleko hates the robot, but the robot persists in taking care of his needs. Robots can do many things, but can they help an old man reconcile with his child before it’s too late?

If the story’s touching ending prompts a tear or two, well, sorry not sorry.

Inspiration

I wrote it after my wife and I served as caregivers for my mother-in-law. It occurred to me that a well-designed robot could perform all the required tasks. In a couple of ways, a robot might prove superior to a human caregiver. Robots often excel at the things humans struggle with, and vice versa.

Elderly people sometimes repeat themselves, forgetting that they’ve just said the same thing. This can annoy human caregivers, but a robot will listen patiently, over and over, responding each time as if hearing it afresh.

Also, human caregivers often find it difficult to lift and convey heavy patients between bed and wheelchair, or wheelchair and toilet. A well-built robot could do this with ease.

The Anthology

The book contains thirteen other short stories I look forward to reading. Edited by Andrew Ferrell and published by Cloaked Press, this new science fiction anthology, Spring into Scifi, is available here and here so far, with more distributors picking it up soon. As I may have mentioned, it includes a story written by—

Poseidon’s Scribe

On The Evolution of Alien Species

Aliens have come a long way. Not real aliens—I don’t even know if they exist. I’m referring to aliens in literature. Inspired by fine articles authored by Ian Simpson and Joelle Renstrom, I’ll describe how aliens evolved with science fiction.

Image from Pixabay.com

The Law of Alien Fiction

First, though, I’ll emphasize a non-intuitive law of alien literature: Alien stories aren’t about aliens. They’re about humans. Even stories populated only by non-human characters are about humans. A simple reason explains this—people write stories for other people. If we encounter aliens someday, we’ll write stories about them, and perhaps they’ll return the favor…if they write stories. Until then, it’s all about us.

Origins – Humanoids to Visit and Study

In primeval scifi, aliens resembled us. They served as stand-ins for primitive human societies encountered during exploratory voyages. They existed to be noticed and remarked upon, or to serve as metaphors serving the author’s purposes.

Examples include the sun and moon people of Lucian’s True History, the tall lunar Christians of Francis Godwin’s The Man in the Moone, and the titanic aliens of Voltaire’s Micromégas.

Post-Darwin Evolutionary Branching

Charles Darwin’s Theory of Evolution showed how animal species evolve from earlier forms and sometimes split into two or more species. This freed writers from the humanoid anatomy, so aliens branched out in all directions, exploding into the universe of fiction. They filled all niches. Their attitudes toward humans ranged from bad, through neutral, to good.

We saw warlike, conquest-driven aliens shaped like giant heads in H.G. Wells’ The War of the Worlds. A variety of species populated Mars in Edgar Rice Burroughs’ Barsoom series. God-like aliens appeared in Olaf Stapleton’s Star Maker. C.S. Lewis gave readers otter-like bipeds and insect-frogs in Out of the Silent Planet. E.E. “Doc” Smith’s The Skylark of Space featured non-material aliens. Arthur C. Clarke showed us Satan-like aliens whose purpose was to prepare humanity for its designated future role, in Childhood’s End. In Starship Troopers, Robert A. Heinlein scared us with huge bug-aliens. By contrast, peaceful and philosophical aliens occupied Mars until humans colonized the planet and displaced them in Ray Bradbury’s The Martian Chronicles.

3-D Aliens

Readers loved these aliens, but began asking questions. They wanted more depth. Authors began fleshing out the aliens, thinking through the implications. They gave the aliens backstory, culture, language, politics, art, philosophy, mores, and logical motivations.

In Dune and its sequels, author Frank Herbert supplied a life cycle for the giant sandworms, and integrated them into the values and mythos of the planet.

Larry Niven became the exemplar for fully-imagined aliens, from the puppeteers and Kzinti of Ringworld, to the Moties of The Mote in God’s Eye, to the elephantine Fithp of Footfall (the latter two co-written with Jerry Pournelle). These aliens possessed history, characteristic gestures, distinctive modes of thought, their own behavior patterns—the whole package.

Explanations for Non-Contact

As decades passed and the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) failed to detect evidence of aliens, and as the difficulty of interstellar travel became more apparent, writers found it less credible to craft stories teeming with star-voyaging alien life.

Authors had to confront the Fermi Paradox problem of why humans haven’t heard from aliens, and what forms that communication might take. Carl Sagan’s Contact, Robert J. Sawyer’s Rollback, and Ted Chiang’s “Story of Your Life” examined these themes in different ways.

Your Alien Story

Like time, evolution marches on. I don’t know what’s next for aliens. Perhaps, in an upcoming story of yours, you’ll tell—

Poseidon’s Scribe

We Want These 14 Improbable Technologies Now

Science fiction literature has provided many fun and interesting technologies that lie beyond our current abilities. Let’s look at a few.

Waterfall, by M.C. Escher

I’m calling these technologies improbable rather than impossible. One person’s impossible often becomes a later person’s accomplishment. The technologies on my list aren’t available now, and some violate known laws of physics, but scientists are researching all of them, and breakthroughs can occur.

Faster than Light (FTL) Travel

This one violates the General Theory of Relativity. That speed limit of c stretches interstellar travel into century or millennium timeframes. If you could exceed light-speed, no policeman could pull you over.

FTL Communication

If relativity forbids pushing matter faster than light, what about information? Sadly, so-called super-luminal communication also violates relativity and nobody has demonstrated it yet. Call me, you Andromedans, just not collect.

Wormhole Transit

The notion of sending matter (including people) through a wormhole connecting distant regions of space sounds appealing. It doesn’t violate relativity or even require FTL. However, nobody has found a wormhole and we don’t know if they exist, or can be created. We should come up with a better name, though.

Teleportation

The movement of macroscopic objects (including people) from one point to another without passing through the space between, as with the Star Trek transporter, might happen one day. The process doesn’t violate physics laws, but would require computational complexity beyond our current means. You’ve got to rearrange all 7 x 1027 atoms in their proper position. So far, scientists can “teleport” information about a single atom across a distance of 3 meters, but that’s all. “Beam me up, Scotty.” “Sorry, I canna do that, Captain.”

Time Travel

From the little I understand, time travel comports with physics laws. However, traveling to the past introduces causality problems, like the Grandfather Paradox. Traveling to the future avoids that difficulty, but remains beyond our technological reach. Except, I believe, for DeLoreans with the advanced options package.

Artificial Gravity and Anti-gravity

Though these are different things, I’ve lumped them together due to their mutual attraction. Artificial gravity, broadly defined, presents no difficulty. Use the centripetal force of a rotating spaceship, or the ship’s linear acceleration, to create it. However, creating gravity itself or eliminating it lies beyond our capability today. Heavy, huh?

Force Fields and Tractor Beams

If we can’t go faster than light, can we at least equip our spaceships with force fields or deflector shields to keep meteors away, and maybe tractor beams to grab things? Perhaps. Scientists are researching these gadgets, but each might consume more energy than they’re worth. Seems like physicists are spoiling all our fun.

Tactile Holograms

Scientists keep telling us no, but they’ll let us have holodecks, like in Star Trek the Next Generation, or hologram doctors, like in Star Trek Voyager, right? Sorry, you can’t touch light. Electromagnetic radiation, as we understand it, doesn’t work that way. Physicists ruin everything.

Lightsaber

Those laser weapons in the Star Wars movies look dangerous but handy. However, they violate what we know about optics and electromagnetic radiation. We can give you a laser, but the beam won’t end in mid-air, and will cross right through your opponent’s laser beam. Also, a laser strong enough to hurt people won’t fit in your hand. Sorry, apprentice Jedi, I’ve got nothing for you.

Invisibility

We’d all love this technology. Think of the practical jokes and the deniability. Optics researchers are working on invisibility using metamaterials, but haven’t seen any practical results. (I should reword that.) Invisibility suffers from an unfortunate downside—blindness. Light passes unseen through a transparent eyeball. A normal, opaque eyeball can see, but also be seen. Don’t look for invisibility any time soon.

Neuralyzer

Maybe I wouldn’t need a lightsaber if I had a neuralyzer, as in the Men in Black movies. Using that gadget, I could make my enemy forget why he wanted to fight. This time, physicists give their consent. However, biologists point out they’ve only demonstrated the technology on mice, and only by implanting fiber optic cables into the mice brains. They’d test it on humans, but nobody has yet volunteered to have their mind wiped.

Suspended Animation

That light speed limit bums me out. If interstellar travel takes centuries, then let me sleep through it, Rip Van Winkle style, and wake me when we get there. Oh, no. Here come those nay-saying biologists They acknowledge suspended animation happens all the time with microorganisms and plant seeds. It’s happened with humans for an hour or two, no more. At light speed, that only takes us one or two billion kilometers. They’d be waking me up before we got to Uranus.

Mind Uploading

The nature of our bodies renders some of these technologies improbable. We could get around that and become immortal if we simply upload our minds into computers. Maybe someday, not today. Here, computational complexity limits us. Work faster, you computer engineers! Why, I have half a mind to…

Cloning Long-Extinct Species

Not known for long-term planning, dinosaurs neglected to leave behind enough intact DNA for us to clone them. Maybe it’s just as well. If we did clone dinosaurs now, in our time, what would they eat?

Conclusion

I’ve teased about scientists spoiling our fun, but they can’t. We can still enjoy reading scifi books about these improbable technologies. They make for fascinating stories. Many scientists love scifi even while they wince at some of the gadgets. Some of these improbable devices even appear in the stories of—

Poseidon’s Scribe

How To Help Readers Understand Complex Topics

You science fiction writers and technical writers face a difficult problem. How do you convey complicated information to an average reader in an understandable way? The late Dr. Richard Feynman may have your answer.

Who Was Richard Feynman?

Dr. Richard Feynman

Feynman (1918-1988) studied quantum mechanics, helped develop the atomic bomb, foresaw nanotechnology, investigated the Space Shuttle Challenger accident, and won a Nobel Prize in Physics. For purposes of this blogpost, Dr. Feynman developed his own technique for learning and understanding things.

The Feynman Technique

Wikipedia mentions the technique here. In brief, here’s how to do it:

  1. Research your topic
  2. Teach it to a child
  3. Fill in knowledge gaps
  4. Review, organize, simplify, and go back to step 2.

First, find out as much as you can about the subject. The second step requires you to teach it to a child who’s about eight years old. You can simulate that step if you wish, but it forces you to use simple words and think of relatable analogies. While doing this, you’ll notice holes in your knowledge (often by confusing the eight-year-old), so the next step involves seeking source materials to fill those gaps. Then you can review your notes, put them in order, simplify them further and try again to teach the topic to a child.

Thoughts on the Technique

My father portraying Richard Feynman

My father used to participate in historical portrayals, in which he acted the part of a historical figure. One time, he chose Richard Feynman, not so much for the scientist’s learning technique, but for his space shuttle commission work. Still, in preparing for his presentations, my dad made use of the technique to get to the essence of Feynman himself.

I wish someone had shown me the technique when I was going through school. Even if I’d imagined I’d have to teach the topic to others, I would’ve paid more attention.

How well do we know what we know? Could we teach an eight-year-old a complex subject? While in the submarine service, I had to study all the systems on the boat. Qualified watchstanders asked me detailed questions about each system, probing until they reached something I didn’t know. Then they’d send me away to look up the answer to the missed questions. That process shares similarities with the Feynman Technique.

Later, in my engineering career, I came upon other engineers who used big words, but I suspected they only knew how to pronounce them, not the details of their meaning. Some people try to impress with high-sounding language, but often those who use simpler vocabulary understand subjects best.

How Can Writers Use the Technique?

Author Isaac Asimov explained complex topics in plain terms. Few writers demonstrate that skill. More than other fiction genres, science fiction delves into complicated technical subjects. Writers strive to entertain, not educate, so must work their explanations into the prose in a manner that neither confuses readers nor slows down the action.

Following the Feynman Technique can help with that. If you follow that method, you’ll know the material well, and possess the simple words and analogies to allow you to convey it to readers without info dumps or head-scratching jargon.

If you need to understand a new topic, or describe it to readers, try the Feynman Technique. It’s a new favorite of—

Poseidon’s Scribe

9 SciFi Predictions for 2025

Author Alan Cox said, “I figure [making] lots of predictions is best. People will forget the ones I get wrong and marvel over the rest.” Today, Poseidon’s Scribe will make his predictions about the science fiction to be written in 2025. Next year at this time, you can do some forgetting and marveling.

In the past, I’ve tried crystal balls, tea leaves, tarot cards, astrology, palmistry, and ChatGPT, but none of those worked. This year, along with a partner, I used a Ouija Board.

That method may sound silly, but aside from making literary predictions, Ouija Board practitioners have channeled many poems and novels from the great beyond, including a novel titled Jap Herron written by Mark Twain after his death.

In addition, I borrowed and rephrased the ideas of Zul Musa of PublishingState.com and Katelyn Ratliff at Bookstr.

Here’s the science fiction you’ll see in 2025:

Climate Change and Solarpunk

Authors will give us post-apocalyptic, post-climate disaster recovery stories with emerging solarpunk civilizations.

Driverless Cars

Writers will show us the pros and cons of more advanced driverless cars than we have now.

Futurism Beyond Africa

While Afrofuturism will continue, we’ll see books exploring the future of other cultures and regions.

Fact-ion

Scifi authors will combine their fiction with fact. That is, they’ll base a fictional tale on a true event.

Future Romance

Setting a romance novel in the future is fine, but in the coming year, authors will further explore how human relationships might change in the future. What bizarre, new kinds of relationships might emerge?

Interacting With Readers

Remember choose-your-own-adventure books? In 2025, authors will find new ways to allow the reader to influence the story-reading experience.

Linked Minds

Extrapolating the possibilities of Elon Musk’s Neuralink, writers will craft stories featuring human characters interfacing with computers via brain implants.

Merged Worlds

Pairs of authors will collaborate on novels that combine characters and worlds developed separately and previously by each writer.

Quality AI Fiction

In the coming year, an AI will write a good science fiction book.

After the Ouija Board finished making those predictions, I couldn’t resist asking it, “Who will be the most successful up-and-coming author of 2025?” After some hesitation, the planchette moved, guided by spiritual forces beyond our realm. To my amazement, within the planchette’s circular window appeared, one by one, letters forming the name of—

Poseidon’s Scribe

Looking Back, My 2024 Predictions Assessed

It’s the most wonderful time of the year…when I judge how well I did at foretelling the attributes of science fiction books in 2024.

In past years, I’ve tried and failed with various techniques, but last year at this time I used a sure-fire method—the AI known as ChatGPT by OpenAI. Let’s see how well I did:

Prediction: AI Ethics and Rights

As artificial intelligence continues to advance, science fiction writers may delve into the ethical considerations and legal rights surrounding sentient AI beings. This could include questions about consciousness, autonomy, and the responsibilities of creators.

Assessment:

Ironic that an AI chatbot would make that prediction. It turned out well, though, with several examples.

Prediction: Climate Crisis Solutions

With an increasing focus on climate change, science fiction could explore innovative and speculative solutions to the environmental challenges facing the planet. This might include technologies to reverse environmental damage or new ways of sustainable living.

Assessment:

CliFi itself did well, yes, but few authors (that I found) focused on solutions to reverse climate change.

Prediction: Neurotechnology and Brain-Computer Interfaces

As developments in neurotechnology progress, science fiction writers may explore the implications of widespread use of brain-computer interfaces. Themes could include mind control, augmented intelligence, and the potential societal impacts of such technologies.

Assessment:

I didn’t come across any examples of this. If you know of one, please post a comment.

Prediction: Space Exploration and Colonization

Given the growing interest in space exploration, science fiction could continue to explore themes related to interplanetary travel and the challenges of colonizing other celestial bodies. This may include the societal dynamics of living in space and encounters with extraterrestrial life.

Assessment:

ChatGPT didn’t stray far out on a limb with this prediction.

Prediction: Genetic Engineering and Biohacking

Advances in genetic engineering and biohacking may lead science fiction writers to explore the consequences of manipulating DNA, creating designer organisms, or even the potential for genetic warfare.

Assessment:

This prediction panned out, with several novels, but none seem to delve into large-scale genetic warfare.

Prediction: Virtual Reality and Alternate Realities

With the evolution of virtual reality, science fiction could depict worlds where the lines between physical and virtual realities blur, exploring themes of identity, addiction, and the consequences of living in immersive digital environments.

Assessment:

The chatbot scored well on this one.

Prediction: Post-Pandemic Societies

In the wake of global events, science fiction writers might explore the long-term societal impacts of pandemics, including changes in governance, healthcare systems, and the dynamics of human interaction.

Assessment:

Not too many in this category. Maybe SciFi writers sensed the public is well over COVID.

Prediction: Quantum Computing and Reality Manipulation

The advent of quantum computing may inspire science fiction narratives centered around the manipulation of reality, parallel universes, and the consequences of unlocking the full potential of quantum technology.

Assessment:

I think ChatGPT jumped the gun on this, and predicted it a couple of years early. I found no examples. Again, if you’ve got one, please post a comment.

Prediction: Social Media and Surveillance Culture

With the increasing prevalence of surveillance technologies and the influence of social media, science fiction could examine dystopian futures where privacy is almost nonexistent, exploring themes of control, rebellion, and the impact on individual freedom.

Assessment:

SciFi authors wrote more about the surveillance part than the social media part.

Prediction: Augmented Reality in Everyday Life

As augmented reality becomes more integrated into daily life, science fiction might explore the societal implications of a world where digital information overlays the physical world. This could include themes of information manipulation, addiction, and the consequences of an increasingly connected reality.

Assessment:

I found only one example here, but I bet more exist.

Conclusion

Overall, ChatGPT performed well in the categories I’d consider obvious, but poorly in others.

Visit this site next week to see my accurate predictions for science fiction in 2025. You wouldn’t want to miss any post by—

Poseidon’s Scribe

Write for 2 Audiences

If you write genre fiction, you write for two sectors of the reading public. Problem is, they want opposite things. What do you do?

For any genre—and I’ll use science fiction as my example—you’ll have two types of readers. Let’s call them Experts and Newbies. You’d like both of them to buy and enjoy your books.

Experts

The first type knows the genre well. Scifi experts can quote the Three Laws of Robotics, have a ball lecturing you about Dyson Spheres, reveal the universal question for which the answer is 42, and babble on about Babylon 5. They read often, and crave the most recently published stories, and prefer them crammed with all the technologies and the latest scientific discoveries.

Newbies

Don’t take that term the wrong way. We all start as newbies. The newbie takes a chance when buying your book. Despite harboring doubts about scifi, the newbie remains curious and willing to learn. The newbie may not know a warp drive from a hard drive, but likes a good story as long as it doesn’t confuse.

These two types differ in their approach to what I’ll call New Stuff and Tropes.

New Stuff

I mentioned experts seek technology and scientific discoveries. They want the latest, the cutting-edge, the most imaginative concepts. Give them the New Stuff. Not only that, they want the full explanation. What’s it look like? How is it powered? How fast does it go? What languages can it speak? You could write many pages of convincing technobabble without boring an expert.

Newbies don’t delight in New Stuff. It’s all new to them. They just want to know how the characters feel about the new stuff and how it affects the plot. Any paragraph that reads like a technical manual annoys them, maybe enough to stop reading.

Tropes

With tropes, the situation reverses. Here, I using the term to refer to technology or concepts well known to readers of the genre. Expert readers get your meaning as soon as you mention wormholes, the multiverse, generation ships, FTL, or cryosleep. If you go further to explain the trope, experts feel insulted.

Newbies, by contrast, get stumped by tropes. These strange words and phrases serve as an ejection seat to launch them out of the story. Just a brief definition would save newbies from frustration.

The Balance

As a writer, you’d like to please both types. When it comes to New Stuff, you should aim for just enough explanation to satisfy experts, but not so much that it bores newbies. With Tropes, seek the briefest definition to help out the newbies. Better yet, define the term in context so newbies can catch the meaning and experts don’t get exasperated.

At a critique group meeting recently, one member criticized my manuscript, saying I hadn’t defined an unfamiliar term, but that member managed to glean what it meant. Another group member knew the term, and said I shouldn’t bog down the prose with further explanations.

I’d achieved balance.

The Signal Technique

Say you’ve got some new stuff in your story. You want to explain it all for the benefit of experts without making newbies nod off. Perhaps the signal technique will work. At the beginning of a paragraph, provide a signal to the reader that a long description follows. If you make the signal clear enough, the expert reads on with eagerness and the newbie skims or even skips that part.

This method might work as well for tropes. Here the signal tells experts they may skip an upcoming explanation without missing anything, while the newbies should read the paragraph to understand the unfamiliar jargon.

Jules Verne mastered that technique. Known for including long lists, he provided unmistakable signals in advance. It’s as if a hypertext alert pops up from the page saying, “Uninterested readers may skip this next part.”

Summary

Needless to say, I’ve simplified things in this discussion of two audiences. Your readers span a spectrum from newbie to expert and all points in between. You can write for them all if you keep their preferences in mind. Maybe, for your next book, one member of your reading audience might be—

Poseidon’s Scribe

10 SciFi Predictions for 2024

Yes, my predictions prove false more often than they prove true. But as the adage goes, a scientist is blamed for one falsehood in a hundred truths, while a seer is praised for one truth in a hundred falsehoods. So give this seer a break, will ya?

It’s all a matter of hitting on the right method. I’ve tried crystal balls, tea leaves, tarot cards, astrology, and palmistry, but none of those worked. This year, I realized I should turn to our modern-day version of the Oracle of Delphi—ChatGPT, the artificial intelligence chatbot by OpenAI.

I gave ChatGPT this task: “make 10 predictions about topics or themes science fiction writers will write about in 2024.”

The AI couched its answer by stating that predictions are iffy. Further, it said its last training update occurred in January 2022, so the predictions are based on trends known up to that date. Personally, I think it was just being humble.

With all the caveats out of the way, here’s what we can expect in 2024:

  • AI Ethics and Rights. As artificial intelligence continues to advance, science fiction writers may delve into the ethical considerations and legal rights surrounding sentient AI beings. This could include questions about consciousness, autonomy, and the responsibilities of creators.
  • Climate Crisis Solutions. With an increasing focus on climate change, science fiction could explore innovative and speculative solutions to the environmental challenges facing the planet. This might include technologies to reverse environmental damage or new ways of sustainable living.
  • Neurotechnology and Brain-Computer Interfaces. As developments in neurotechnology progress, science fiction writers may explore the implications of widespread use of brain-computer interfaces. Themes could include mind control, augmented intelligence, and the potential societal impacts of such technologies.
  • Space Exploration and Colonization. Given the growing interest in space exploration, science fiction could continue to explore themes related to interplanetary travel and the challenges of colonizing other celestial bodies. This may include the societal dynamics of living in space and encounters with extraterrestrial life.
  • Genetic Engineering and Biohacking. Advances in genetic engineering and biohacking may lead science fiction writers to explore the consequences of manipulating DNA, creating designer organisms, or even the potential for genetic warfare.
  • Virtual Reality and Alternate Realities. With the evolution of virtual reality, science fiction could depict worlds where the lines between physical and virtual realities blur, exploring themes of identity, addiction, and the consequences of living in immersive digital environments.
  • Post-Pandemic Societies. In the wake of global events, science fiction writers might explore the long-term societal impacts of pandemics, including changes in governance, healthcare systems, and the dynamics of human interaction.
  • Quantum Computing and Reality Manipulation. The advent of quantum computing may inspire science fiction narratives centered around the manipulation of reality, parallel universes, and the consequences of unlocking the full potential of quantum technology.
  • Social Media and Surveillance Culture. With the increasing prevalence of surveillance technologies and the influence of social media, science fiction could examine dystopian futures where privacy is almost nonexistent, exploring themes of control, rebellion, and the impact on individual freedom.
  • Augmented Reality in Everyday Life. As augmented reality becomes more integrated into daily life, science fiction might explore the societal implications of a world where digital information overlays the physical world. This could include themes of information manipulation, addiction, and the consequences of an increasingly connected reality.

Now you know. The oracle has spoken. By ‘oracle,’ I mean, of course, ChatGPT, not—

Poseidon’s Scribe

December 31, 2023Permalink

Looking Back, My 2023 Predictions Assessed

We’ve arrived at that time of year again, when I judge how well I did at this time last year in foretelling the attributes of science fiction books in 2023.

In past years, I’ve tried various techniques, but this time I used a sure-fire method—palm reading. Let’s see how well I did:

  • Prediction: Artificial Intelligence. A continuing trend, yes, but in 2023, we’ll see a twist. Authors will get past the Frankenstein reruns and the cute-robot-is-nobler-than-humans plot. Novels will show us more sophisticated AI, computers with a different order of intelligence, one alien to us.
  • Prediction: Classics redone in LGBTQ. Authors will explore the contours of the LGBTQ realm by rewriting classic tales, but repopulating them with LGBTQ characters.
  • Prediction: Private Space Flight. I jumped the gun, er, rocket, in predicting this for 2022. 2023 is the year we’ll see spaceships funded by billionaires without government involvement, for better or worse.
    • Assessment: It took some hunting, but I found what might be an example. Skeleton Crew by HT Aaron appears to involve private space flight, though I may be wrong about that.
  • Prediction: Terraforming. Once seen as an extension of man’s dominion over Earth, terraforming will show its warts in 2023. We’ll see stories of botched terraforming, opposed terraforming, and weaponized terraforming.

Before you congratulate me on my foresight (I know you were about to), maybe you shouldn’t credit my palmistry skills. What’s really improved is my after-the-fact ability to find books that fulfilled my prophesies. For those prediction assessments that cite only one or two examples, it’s clear I didn’t forecast a major trend.

I made no personal predictions last year about how my own writing would fare in 2023. Probably a good thing I didn’t.

Watch this space next week to see my spot-on predictions for the world of science fiction in 2024. Considering my past track record, the law of averages says you’ll be amazed at the prognosticating prowess of—

Poseidon’s Scribe

December 24, 2023Permalink