Looking Back, My 2024 Predictions Assessed

It’s the most wonderful time of the year…when I judge how well I did at foretelling the attributes of science fiction books in 2024.

In past years, I’ve tried and failed with various techniques, but last year at this time I used a sure-fire method—the AI known as ChatGPT by OpenAI. Let’s see how well I did:

Prediction: AI Ethics and Rights

As artificial intelligence continues to advance, science fiction writers may delve into the ethical considerations and legal rights surrounding sentient AI beings. This could include questions about consciousness, autonomy, and the responsibilities of creators.

Assessment:

Ironic that an AI chatbot would make that prediction. It turned out well, though, with several examples.

Prediction: Climate Crisis Solutions

With an increasing focus on climate change, science fiction could explore innovative and speculative solutions to the environmental challenges facing the planet. This might include technologies to reverse environmental damage or new ways of sustainable living.

Assessment:

CliFi itself did well, yes, but few authors (that I found) focused on solutions to reverse climate change.

Prediction: Neurotechnology and Brain-Computer Interfaces

As developments in neurotechnology progress, science fiction writers may explore the implications of widespread use of brain-computer interfaces. Themes could include mind control, augmented intelligence, and the potential societal impacts of such technologies.

Assessment:

I didn’t come across any examples of this. If you know of one, please post a comment.

Prediction: Space Exploration and Colonization

Given the growing interest in space exploration, science fiction could continue to explore themes related to interplanetary travel and the challenges of colonizing other celestial bodies. This may include the societal dynamics of living in space and encounters with extraterrestrial life.

Assessment:

ChatGPT didn’t stray far out on a limb with this prediction.

Prediction: Genetic Engineering and Biohacking

Advances in genetic engineering and biohacking may lead science fiction writers to explore the consequences of manipulating DNA, creating designer organisms, or even the potential for genetic warfare.

Assessment:

This prediction panned out, with several novels, but none seem to delve into large-scale genetic warfare.

Prediction: Virtual Reality and Alternate Realities

With the evolution of virtual reality, science fiction could depict worlds where the lines between physical and virtual realities blur, exploring themes of identity, addiction, and the consequences of living in immersive digital environments.

Assessment:

The chatbot scored well on this one.

Prediction: Post-Pandemic Societies

In the wake of global events, science fiction writers might explore the long-term societal impacts of pandemics, including changes in governance, healthcare systems, and the dynamics of human interaction.

Assessment:

Not too many in this category. Maybe SciFi writers sensed the public is well over COVID.

Prediction: Quantum Computing and Reality Manipulation

The advent of quantum computing may inspire science fiction narratives centered around the manipulation of reality, parallel universes, and the consequences of unlocking the full potential of quantum technology.

Assessment:

I think ChatGPT jumped the gun on this, and predicted it a couple of years early. I found no examples. Again, if you’ve got one, please post a comment.

Prediction: Social Media and Surveillance Culture

With the increasing prevalence of surveillance technologies and the influence of social media, science fiction could examine dystopian futures where privacy is almost nonexistent, exploring themes of control, rebellion, and the impact on individual freedom.

Assessment:

SciFi authors wrote more about the surveillance part than the social media part.

Prediction: Augmented Reality in Everyday Life

As augmented reality becomes more integrated into daily life, science fiction might explore the societal implications of a world where digital information overlays the physical world. This could include themes of information manipulation, addiction, and the consequences of an increasingly connected reality.

Assessment:

I found only one example here, but I bet more exist.

Conclusion

Overall, ChatGPT performed well in the categories I’d consider obvious, but poorly in others.

Visit this site next week to see my accurate predictions for science fiction in 2025. You wouldn’t want to miss any post by—

Poseidon’s Scribe

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