2024 predictions - Steven R. Southard (Poseidon's Scribe)

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10 SciFi Predictions for 2024

Yes, my predictions prove false more often than they prove true. But as the adage goes, a scientist is blamed for one falsehood in a hundred truths, while a seer is praised for one truth in a hundred falsehoods. So give this seer a break, will ya?

It’s all a matter of hitting on the right method. I’ve tried crystal balls, tea leaves, tarot cards, astrology, and palmistry, but none of those worked. This year, I realized I should turn to our modern-day version of the Oracle of Delphi—ChatGPT, the artificial intelligence chatbot by OpenAI.

I gave ChatGPT this task: “make 10 predictions about topics or themes science fiction writers will write about in 2024.”

The AI couched its answer by stating that predictions are iffy. Further, it said its last training update occurred in January 2022, so the predictions are based on trends known up to that date. Personally, I think it was just being humble.

With all the caveats out of the way, here’s what we can expect in 2024:

AI Ethics and Rights. As artificial intelligence continues to advance, science fiction writers may delve into the ethical considerations and legal rights surrounding sentient AI beings. This could include questions about consciousness, autonomy, and the responsibilities of creators.

Climate Crisis Solutions. With an increasing focus on climate change, science fiction could explore innovative and speculative solutions to the environmental challenges facing the planet. This might include technologies to reverse environmental damage or new ways of sustainable living.

Neurotechnology and Brain-Computer Interfaces. As developments in neurotechnology progress, science fiction writers may explore the implications of widespread use of brain-computer interfaces. Themes could include mind control, augmented intelligence, and the potential societal impacts of such technologies.

Space Exploration and Colonization. Given the growing interest in space exploration, science fiction could continue to explore themes related to interplanetary travel and the challenges of colonizing other celestial bodies. This may include the societal dynamics of living in space and encounters with extraterrestrial life.

Genetic Engineering and Biohacking. Advances in genetic engineering and biohacking may lead science fiction writers to explore the consequences of manipulating DNA, creating designer organisms, or even the potential for genetic warfare.

Virtual Reality and Alternate Realities. With the evolution of virtual reality, science fiction could depict worlds where the lines between physical and virtual realities blur, exploring themes of identity, addiction, and the consequences of living in immersive digital environments.

Post-Pandemic Societies. In the wake of global events, science fiction writers might explore the long-term societal impacts of pandemics, including changes in governance, healthcare systems, and the dynamics of human interaction.

Quantum Computing and Reality Manipulation. The advent of quantum computing may inspire science fiction narratives centered around the manipulation of reality, parallel universes, and the consequences of unlocking the full potential of quantum technology.

Social Media and Surveillance Culture. With the increasing prevalence of surveillance technologies and the influence of social media, science fiction could examine dystopian futures where privacy is almost nonexistent, exploring themes of control, rebellion, and the impact on individual freedom.

Augmented Reality in Everyday Life. As augmented reality becomes more integrated into daily life, science fiction might explore the societal implications of a world where digital information overlays the physical world. This could include themes of information manipulation, addiction, and the consequences of an increasingly connected reality.

Now you know. The oracle has spoken. By ‘oracle,’ I mean, of course, ChatGPT, not—

Poseidon’s Scribe

December 31, 2023Poseidon's ScribePermalink

Looking Back, My 2023 Predictions Assessed

We’ve arrived at that time of year again, when I judge how well I did at this time last year in foretelling the attributes of science fiction books in 2023.

In past years, I’ve tried various techniques, but this time I used a sure-fire method—palm reading. Let’s see how well I did:

Prediction: Artificial Intelligence. A continuing trend, yes, but in 2023, we’ll see a twist. Authors will get past the Frankenstein reruns and the cute-robot-is-nobler-than-humans plot. Novels will show us more sophisticated AI, computers with a different order of intelligence, one alien to us.
- Assessment: Did pretty well on this one, but anyone could have made that prediction. In Jungle House by Julianne Pachico, the AI serves as a mother to a human protagonist. The Deep Sky by Yume Kitasei features an unreliable AI.

Prediction: Classics redone in LGBTQ. Authors will explore the contours of the LGBTQ realm by rewriting classic tales, but repopulating them with LGBTQ characters.
- Assessment: I’ll call this a fairy accurate prediction, too. The Mimicking of Known Successes by Malka Older is a retelling of Sherlock Holmes mysteries with lesbians in the role of Holmes and Watson.

Prediction: Climate Fiction. CliFi hasn’t run its course yet. Readers want it, and authors will supply it.
- Assessment: Goal! Hit this one on the nose. Here are some examples of CliFi in 2023: The Lost Cause by Cory Doctorow, Land of Milk and Honey by C Pam Zhang, The Great Transition by Nick Fuller Googins, Yours for the Taking by Gabrielle Korn, and Venomous Lumpsucker by Ned Beauman.

Prediction: Mars. The Red Planet is in again. We’ll see books featuring the fourth rock from the sun.
- Assessment: Bingo, another spot-on prediction as evidenced by The Strange by Nathan Ballingrud and Playground Mars by Logan Russell.

Prediction: Private Space Flight. I jumped the gun, er, rocket, in predicting this for 2022. 2023 is the year we’ll see spaceships funded by billionaires without government involvement, for better or worse.
- Assessment: It took some hunting, but I found what might be an example. Skeleton Crew by HT Aaron appears to involve private space flight, though I may be wrong about that.

Prediction: Solarpunk. I’m seeing more novels in the coming year with this motif, bringing us sustainable, renewable energy and diverging from capitalism and a colonial mindset.
- Assessment: Another successful prediction. Both Murder in the Tool Library by AE Marling and The Bright Mirror: Global Solarpunk by Women edited by Francesco Verso fit well in the solarpunk subgenre.

Prediction: Terraforming. Once seen as an extension of man’s dominion over Earth, terraforming will show its warts in 2023. We’ll see stories of botched terraforming, opposed terraforming, and weaponized terraforming.
- Assessment: I’ll claim this as an accurate prediction, too. The Terraformers by Annalee Newitz depicts a terraforming project that missed something important.

Before you congratulate me on my foresight (I know you were about to), maybe you shouldn’t credit my palmistry skills. What’s really improved is my after-the-fact ability to find books that fulfilled my prophesies. For those prediction assessments that cite only one or two examples, it’s clear I didn’t forecast a major trend.

I made no personal predictions last year about how my own writing would fare in 2023. Probably a good thing I didn’t.

Watch this space next week to see my spot-on predictions for the world of science fiction in 2024. Considering my past track record, the law of averages says you’ll be amazed at the prognosticating prowess of—

Poseidon’s Scribe

December 24, 2023Poseidon's ScribePermalink