In the last several Decembers, I’ve used various techniques to predict the sort of science fiction books to be published in the upcoming year. Last year, I used an astrological chart. Let’s see if my predictions came true.
- Prediction: Games and Virtual Reality. This recent trend will continue in 2022 as authors explore the landscape of these settings. Moreover, readers will enjoy the escapism aspect of these stories.
- Assessment: I nailed it. Here are two examples–Unanimity by Alexandra Almeida involves a simulated reality, and Rabbits by Terry Miles concerns a secret, dangerous and sometimes fatal underground game.
- Prediction: UFOs/UAPs. As the government promises to release data on UFOs or Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, scifi authors will capitalize on the public’s interest in these sightings.
- Assessment: My astrological chart worked on this one, too. Light Years From Home by Mike Chen involves alien abductions, and Beyond the Burn Line by Paul McAuley gives readers alien spacecraft coming to Earth after humanity’s extinction.
- Prediction: Pandemic. 2022 will be the year for pandemic scifi. Expect bizarre diseases with weird symptoms.
- Assessment: Success in this prediction, as well. How High We Go in the Dark by Sequoia Nagamatsu concerns a plague released from a preserved corpse. Sea of Tranquility by Emily St. John Mandel involves three separate people connected by a plague.
- Prediction: Post-pandemic. As we emerge from the COVID-19 Pandemic, scifi writers will give us tales of humanity returning to normal after devastating pandemic diseases.
- Assessment: I’ll say I got this right, too. The Violence by Delilah S. Dawson takes place in a post-COVID Florida, in 2025, on the cusp of a new and different pandemic.
- Prediction: Private space exploration and tourism. In 2022 we’ll read scifi novels featuring billionaire-funded space travel, both for tourism and exploration.
- Assessment: Here’s where my chart let me down. I found no examples of this.
- Prediction: Humor. We’ll see a welcome surge in funny scifi, just in time to meet the public’s need for a lighter mood.
- Assessment: I’ll rate this prediction as borderline, as the humor in my examples tends to be either subtle or dark. Some reviewers have mentioned the humor in How High We Go in the Dark by Sequoia Nagamatsu. Mickey7 by Edward Ashton gives readers some dark humor.
- Prediction: CliFi. Many readers and scifi writers share concerns about climate change, which will inspire new novels about how humanity copes.
- Assessment: Okay, anybody could have made this prediction, I grant you. Authors delivered. The Light Pirate by Lily Brooks-Dalton follows a child born out of a hurricane who must handle a changing climate. Imagine 2200: The 2022 Climate Fiction Collection edited by Tory Stephens contains clifi short stories. Extinction Notice edited by David Harten Watson is another such anthology.
- Prediction: AI. Artificial Intelligence will continue to prompt the scifi of 2022 as it has for years now. I predict stories involving the whole spectrum of AI, from specialized AI capable of one type of task, to general AI similar to human intelligence, all the way to superintelligence.
- Assessment: I’ll give myself partial credit, since I’m not sure the whole spectrum of AI got covered. The Red Scholar’s Wake by Aliette de Bodard features a sentient spaceship. A Rover’s Story by Jasmine Warga is a middle grade novel about a sentient Mars rover. Unanimity by Alexandra Almeida shows AI experts creating a virtual reality. In Roadkill by Dennis E. Taylor, the protagonist has an AI sidekick. A Prayer for the Crown-Shy by Becky Chambers is a hopepunk journey of human and robot through the wilds of future human civilization.
Personal Predictions
I made two of these, only one of which panned out.
- Prediction: My collection of short stories about the future history of seasteading, titled The Seastead Chronicles, will be published in 2022.
- Assessment: Nope, but likely in 2023.
- Prediction: The North American Jules Verne Society will publish its first anthology of short stories, titled Extraordinary Visions: Stories Inspired by Jules Verne. I’m on the editorial team.
- Assessment: Got this one right. The anthology got published on December 12 and is available in hardcover and paperback.
I’m getting better at this prediction business. If only my abilities extended to the stock market, the lottery, horse racing, or casino gambling. Stay tuned for my next blogpost, where all the science fiction trends to look for in 2023 will be revealed by—
Poseidon’s Scribe
