Category Archives: Predictions

10 SciFi Predictions for 2024

Yes, my predictions prove false more often than they prove true. But as the adage goes, a scientist is blamed for one falsehood in a hundred truths, while a seer is praised for one truth in a hundred falsehoods. So give this seer a break, will ya?

It’s all a matter of hitting on the right method. I’ve tried crystal balls, tea leaves, tarot cards, astrology, and palmistry, but none of those worked. This year, I realized I should turn to our modern-day version of the Oracle of Delphi—ChatGPT, the artificial intelligence chatbot by OpenAI.

I gave ChatGPT this task: “make 10 predictions about topics or themes science fiction writers will write about in 2024.”

The AI couched its answer by stating that predictions are iffy. Further, it said its last training update occurred in January 2022, so the predictions are based on trends known up to that date. Personally, I think it was just being humble.

With all the caveats out of the way, here’s what we can expect in 2024:

  • AI Ethics and Rights. As artificial intelligence continues to advance, science fiction writers may delve into the ethical considerations and legal rights surrounding sentient AI beings. This could include questions about consciousness, autonomy, and the responsibilities of creators.
  • Climate Crisis Solutions. With an increasing focus on climate change, science fiction could explore innovative and speculative solutions to the environmental challenges facing the planet. This might include technologies to reverse environmental damage or new ways of sustainable living.
  • Neurotechnology and Brain-Computer Interfaces. As developments in neurotechnology progress, science fiction writers may explore the implications of widespread use of brain-computer interfaces. Themes could include mind control, augmented intelligence, and the potential societal impacts of such technologies.
  • Space Exploration and Colonization. Given the growing interest in space exploration, science fiction could continue to explore themes related to interplanetary travel and the challenges of colonizing other celestial bodies. This may include the societal dynamics of living in space and encounters with extraterrestrial life.
  • Genetic Engineering and Biohacking. Advances in genetic engineering and biohacking may lead science fiction writers to explore the consequences of manipulating DNA, creating designer organisms, or even the potential for genetic warfare.
  • Virtual Reality and Alternate Realities. With the evolution of virtual reality, science fiction could depict worlds where the lines between physical and virtual realities blur, exploring themes of identity, addiction, and the consequences of living in immersive digital environments.
  • Post-Pandemic Societies. In the wake of global events, science fiction writers might explore the long-term societal impacts of pandemics, including changes in governance, healthcare systems, and the dynamics of human interaction.
  • Quantum Computing and Reality Manipulation. The advent of quantum computing may inspire science fiction narratives centered around the manipulation of reality, parallel universes, and the consequences of unlocking the full potential of quantum technology.
  • Social Media and Surveillance Culture. With the increasing prevalence of surveillance technologies and the influence of social media, science fiction could examine dystopian futures where privacy is almost nonexistent, exploring themes of control, rebellion, and the impact on individual freedom.
  • Augmented Reality in Everyday Life. As augmented reality becomes more integrated into daily life, science fiction might explore the societal implications of a world where digital information overlays the physical world. This could include themes of information manipulation, addiction, and the consequences of an increasingly connected reality.

Now you know. The oracle has spoken. By ‘oracle,’ I mean, of course, ChatGPT, not—

Poseidon’s Scribe

December 31, 2023Permalink

Looking Back, My 2023 Predictions Assessed

We’ve arrived at that time of year again, when I judge how well I did at this time last year in foretelling the attributes of science fiction books in 2023.

In past years, I’ve tried various techniques, but this time I used a sure-fire method—palm reading. Let’s see how well I did:

  • Prediction: Artificial Intelligence. A continuing trend, yes, but in 2023, we’ll see a twist. Authors will get past the Frankenstein reruns and the cute-robot-is-nobler-than-humans plot. Novels will show us more sophisticated AI, computers with a different order of intelligence, one alien to us.
  • Prediction: Classics redone in LGBTQ. Authors will explore the contours of the LGBTQ realm by rewriting classic tales, but repopulating them with LGBTQ characters.
  • Prediction: Private Space Flight. I jumped the gun, er, rocket, in predicting this for 2022. 2023 is the year we’ll see spaceships funded by billionaires without government involvement, for better or worse.
    • Assessment: It took some hunting, but I found what might be an example. Skeleton Crew by HT Aaron appears to involve private space flight, though I may be wrong about that.
  • Prediction: Terraforming. Once seen as an extension of man’s dominion over Earth, terraforming will show its warts in 2023. We’ll see stories of botched terraforming, opposed terraforming, and weaponized terraforming.

Before you congratulate me on my foresight (I know you were about to), maybe you shouldn’t credit my palmistry skills. What’s really improved is my after-the-fact ability to find books that fulfilled my prophesies. For those prediction assessments that cite only one or two examples, it’s clear I didn’t forecast a major trend.

I made no personal predictions last year about how my own writing would fare in 2023. Probably a good thing I didn’t.

Watch this space next week to see my spot-on predictions for the world of science fiction in 2024. Considering my past track record, the law of averages says you’ll be amazed at the prognosticating prowess of—

Poseidon’s Scribe

December 24, 2023Permalink

7 Science Fiction Predictions for 2023

Though I’ve tried and failed to predict future science fiction trends before, practice makes…well, better. I used the wrong techniques, that’s all. It’s obvious to me now—you can’t see the future in crystal balls, tea leaves, tarot cards, or astrology charts.

You need to read palms. Chiromancy—that’s the foolproof way. My hands have touched so many science fiction books during my life, it should have been obvious to look there for what’s coming in 2023. I had it all along, right in the palm of my hand.

As I gaze at the length and curvature of the lines and the fleshiness of the seven mounts on my hands, it all becomes clear. Some of my predictions repeat those of previous years, but that only means a trend continues or re-emerges in 2023. Here are the types of science fiction books you can expect next year:

  • Artificial Intelligence. A continuing trend, yes, but in 2023, we’ll see a twist. Authors will get past the Frankenstein reruns and the cute-robot-is-nobler-than-humans plot. Novels will show us more sophisticated AI, computers with a different order of intelligence, one alien to us.
  • Classics redone in LGBTQ. Authors will explore the contours of the LGBTQ realm by rewriting classic tales, but repopulating them with LGBTQ characters.
  • Climate Fiction. CliFi hasn’t run its course yet. Readers want it, and authors will supply it.
  • Mars. The Red Planet is in again. We’ll see books featuring the fourth rock from the sun.
  • Private Space Flight. I jumped the gun, er, rocket, in predicting this for 2022. 2023 is the year we’ll see spaceships funded by billionaires without government involvement, for better or worse.
  • Solarpunk. I’m seeing more novels in the coming year with this motif, bringing us sustainable, renewable energy and diverging from capitalism and a colonial mindset.
  • Terraforming. Once seen as an extension of man’s dominion over Earth, terraforming will show its warts in 2023. We’ll see stories of botched terraforming, opposed terraforming, and weaponized terraforming.

There they are—rock solid predictions you can take to the bank. Or, more correctly, the bookstore. As you peruse the New Releases section of bookselling websites or stores, seeing novels on those topics, you’ll say “I’ve really got to hand it to—

Poseidon’s Scribe”

December 31, 2022Permalink

Looking Back, My 2022 Predictions Assessed

In the last several Decembers, I’ve used various techniques to predict the sort of science fiction books to be published in the upcoming year. Last year, I used an astrological chart. Let’s see if my predictions came true.

  • Prediction: Games and Virtual Reality. This recent trend will continue in 2022 as authors explore the landscape of these settings. Moreover, readers will enjoy the escapism aspect of these stories.
    • Assessment: I nailed it. Here are two examples–Unanimity by Alexandra Almeida involves a simulated reality, and Rabbits by Terry Miles concerns a secret, dangerous and sometimes fatal underground game.
  • Prediction: UFOs/UAPs. As the government promises to release data on UFOs or Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, scifi authors will capitalize on the public’s interest in these sightings.
    • Assessment: My astrological chart worked on this one, too. Light Years From Home by Mike Chen involves alien abductions, and Beyond the Burn Line by Paul McAuley gives readers alien spacecraft coming to Earth after humanity’s extinction.
  • Prediction: Pandemic. 2022 will be the year for pandemic scifi. Expect bizarre diseases with weird symptoms.
    • Assessment: Success in this prediction, as well. How High We Go in the Dark by Sequoia Nagamatsu concerns a plague released from a preserved corpse. Sea of Tranquility by Emily St. John Mandel involves three separate people connected by a plague.
  • Prediction: Post-pandemic. As we emerge from the COVID-19 Pandemic, scifi writers will give us tales of humanity returning to normal after devastating pandemic diseases.
    • Assessment: I’ll say I got this right, too. The Violence by Delilah S. Dawson takes place in a post-COVID Florida, in 2025, on the cusp of a new and different pandemic.
  • Prediction: Private space exploration and tourism. In 2022 we’ll read scifi novels featuring billionaire-funded space travel, both for tourism and exploration.
    • Assessment: Here’s where my chart let me down. I found no examples of this.
  • Prediction: Humor. We’ll see a welcome surge in funny scifi, just in time to meet the public’s need for a lighter mood.
    • Assessment: I’ll rate this prediction as borderline, as the humor in my examples tends to be either subtle or dark. Some reviewers have mentioned the humor in How High We Go in the Dark by Sequoia Nagamatsu. Mickey7 by Edward Ashton gives readers some dark humor.  
  • Prediction: CliFi.  Many readers and scifi writers share concerns about climate change, which will inspire new novels about how humanity copes.
    • Assessment: Okay, anybody could have made this prediction, I grant you. Authors delivered. The Light Pirate by Lily Brooks-Dalton follows a child born out of a hurricane who must handle a changing climate. Imagine 2200: The 2022 Climate Fiction Collection edited by Tory Stephens contains clifi short stories. Extinction Notice edited by David Harten Watson is another such anthology.     
  • Prediction: AI. Artificial Intelligence will continue to prompt the scifi of 2022 as it has for years now. I predict stories involving the whole spectrum of AI, from specialized AI capable of one type of task, to general AI similar to human intelligence, all the way to superintelligence.
    • Assessment: I’ll give myself partial credit, since I’m not sure the whole spectrum of AI got covered. The Red Scholar’s Wake by Aliette de Bodard features a sentient spaceship. A Rover’s Story by Jasmine Warga is a middle grade novel about a sentient Mars rover. Unanimity by Alexandra Almeida shows AI experts creating a virtual reality. In Roadkill by Dennis E. Taylor, the protagonist has an AI sidekick. A Prayer for the Crown-Shy by Becky Chambers is a hopepunk journey of human and robot through the wilds of future human civilization.

Personal Predictions

I made two of these, only one of which panned out.

  • Prediction: My collection of short stories about the future history of seasteading, titled The Seastead Chronicles, will be published in 2022.
    • Assessment: Nope, but likely in 2023.

I’m getting better at this prediction business. If only my abilities extended to the stock market, the lottery, horse racing, or casino gambling. Stay tuned for my next blogpost, where all the science fiction trends to look for in 2023 will be revealed by—

Poseidon’s Scribe

December 26, 2022Permalink

8 (+2) Science Fiction Predictions for 2022

Yes, it’s true, not all of my previous year’s predictions have proven accurate. But some have. Rest assured, though. I’ve abandoned the flawed methods I used back then. Those crystal balls, tea leaves and tarot cards are for amateurs.

I spent all of 2021 working on a special astrological chart for science fiction literature. After all, it’s only natural to turn to the stars for scifi trends, right? Here are my predictions for 2022:

  • Games and Virtual Reality. This recent trend will continue in 2022 as authors explore the landscape of these settings. Moreover, readers will enjoy the escapism aspect of these stories.
  • UFOs/UAPs. As the government promises to release data on UFOs or Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, scifi authors will capitalize on the public’s interest in these sightings.
  • Pandemic. After predicting this last year, I realize I was a year ahead of myself (it happens, in this prognostication biz). 2022 will be the year for pandemic scifi. Expect bizarre diseases with weird symptoms.
  • Post-pandemic. As we emerge from the COVID-19 Pandemic, scifi writers will give us tales of humanity returning to normal after devastating pandemic diseases.
  • Private space exploration and tourism. Another example of me misreading the tarot cards. It wasn’t 2021, but will be 2022 when we read scifi novels featuring billionaire-funded space travel, both for tourism and exploration.
  • Humor. We’ll see a welcome surge in funny scifi, just in time to meet the public’s need for a lighter mood.
  • CliFi.  Many readers and scifi writers share concerns about climate change, which will inspire new novels about how humanity copes.
  • AI. Artificial Intelligence will continue to prompt the scifi of 2022 as it has for years now. I predict stories involving the whole spectrum of AI, from specialized AI capable of one type of task, to general AI similar to human intelligence, all the way to superintelligence.

Personal Predictions

As a bonus, here are two prophesies involving me:

  • The North American Jules Verne Society will publish its first anthology of short stories, titled Extraordinary Visions: Stories Inspired by Jules Verne. I’m on the editorial team.
  • My collection of short stories about the future history of seasteading, titled The Seastead Chronicles, will be published in 2022.

A year from now, you’ll be amazed at how such accurate predictions were even possible. You’ll be begging for a copy of my secret scifi astrology chart and the instructions for using it. You’ll be kicking yourself for having ever doubted—

Poseidon’s Scribe

December 26, 2021Permalink

Looking Back, My 2021 Predictions Assessed

Another year, another set of (mostly) failed predictions. You’d think I’d give this up! At the end of 2020, I used special tarot cards to make predictions about science fiction books to appear in 2021. Let’s see how those prophecies panned out.

  • Prediction: Disease stories. Inspired by the COVID-19 virus, there will be stories of even deadlier diseases, perhaps intelligent diseases. I see stories of pandemics, extreme isolation, and how characters deal with mass death.
    • Assessment: I didn’t see a lot of such books, but The End of Men by Christina Sweeney-Baird is about a virus that kills only men.
  • Prediction: Rebirth. I foresee stories of characters getting back to normal after pandemics, stories about the rebirth of society.
    • Assessment: Perhaps my prediction for this was a year early. The Past is Red by Catherynne M. Valente is about rebirth of civilization after climate change and pollution, not disease.
  • Prediction: Private Space Exploration. Inspired by Space-X, stories of space travel will involve companies, not governments.
    • Assessment: I saw no real evidence of this.
  • Prediction: Humor. There will be a surge in funny scifi, mainly because we can all use it right now.
    • Assessment: I saw no real evidence of this.
  • Prediction: Artificial Intelligence. Writers in 2021 will continue to explore this topic as they have for decades, but with greater urgency as computer scientists get closer and closer to developing Artificial General Intelligence, and perhaps Artificial Super Intelligence.
    • Assessment: Got this one right! Check out A Psalm for the Wild-Built by Becky Chambers, and Fugitive Telemetry by Martha Wells.
  • Prediction: Anti-Capitalism. I predict there will be stories pointing out, in fictional form, the deficiencies of capitalism. Anti-capitalist themes may only form the backdrop of the story, but they will be there.
    • Assessment: I give myself partial credit here. The Past is Red by Catherynne M. Valente concerns the aftermath of a polluted, flooded future Earth after capitalism has run amok.
  • Prediction: China. In 2021, I see an uptick in scifi books involving China in some way. Some will be written by Chinese authors, and some stories will be set in China.
    • Assessment: Again, I think I earned partial credit. Sinopticon, edited by Xueting Christine Ni was an anthology of Chinese scifi short stories. The anthology was published in 2021 and contained stories dating from 1993-2021.
  • Prediction: Fewer Aliens. Alien tales are out in 2021. Of the few that will be published, they will involve communication only, not visitations, let alone abductions or invasions.
    • Assessment: Sheesh. I couldn’t have been more wrong. If anything, scifi was awash with aliens in 2021. All these novels contained them: Shards of Earth by Adrian Tchaikovsky, The Last Watch by J.S. Dewes, The Saints of Salvation by Peter F. Hamilton, To Sleep in a Sea of Stars by Christopher Paolini, A Desolation Called Peace by Arkady Martine, and Jack Four by Neal Asher.
  • Prediction: Urban Scifi. Paralleling the urban fantasy subgenre, we’ll see a lot of scifi books in 2021 that start out in a modern-day city setting, and go from there.
    • Assessment: For the most part, I got this wrong. Most scifi in 2021 was set in the future. One exception was The Kaiju Preservation Society by John Scalzi which begins in modern-day New York City.

Personal Predictions

I also included a set of prophesies about my own writing and editing. I managed to get them all wrong.

  • Prediction: The Seastead Chronicles, my collection of short stories about the future history of seasteading, will be published in 2021.
    • Assessment: Not 2021, but next year, I hope.
  • Prediction: The North American Jules Verne Society will publish its first anthology of short stories, (working title: Extraordinary Visions: Stories Inspired by Jules Verne) all inspired by Jules Verne, in 2021, and I’ll be on the editorial team.
    • Assessment: Not 2021, but 2022 for sure.
  • Prediction: Pole to Pole Publishing will put out an anthology of reprinted military science fiction short stories in 2021, titled Re-Enlist. I’ll serve as co-editor of this one.
    • Assessment: Regrettably, Pole to Pole Publishing had to abandon this one. Won’t be happening.

Though I’ve failed to make accurate predictions using tarot cards, tea leaves, and a crystal ball in the past three years, don’t think I’m giving up. I’ve been working all year to perfect astrological prediction techniques. Watch this space for next week’s blog, where I reveal the truth about scifi literature in 2022.

Let’s just forget about my past failures, shall we? Starting now, you can believe all future predictions made by—

Poseidon’s Scribe

December 19, 2021Permalink

9 SciFi Predictions for 2021

I know, I know, when I used a crystal ball two years ago, my predictions didn’t pan out. Then when I read tea leaves last year, my prognostications were in error. But you can believe me this year. I’m using SciFi tarot cards to predict what will happen in 2021.

The cards can’t possibly be wrong. Here are my predictions for science fiction books in the year 2021:

  • Disease Stories. Inspired by the COVID-19 virus, there will be stories of even deadlier diseases, perhaps intelligent diseases. I see stories of pandemics, extreme isolation, and how characters deal with mass death.
  • Rebirth. I foresee stories of characters getting back to normal after pandemics, stories about the rebirth of society.
  • Private Space Exploration. Inspired by Space-X, stories of space travel will involve companies, not governments.
  • Humor. There will be a surge in funny scifi, mainly because we can all use it right now.
  • Artificial Intelligence. Writers in 2021 will continue to explore this topic as they have for decades, but with greater urgency as computer scientists get closer and closer to developing Artificial General Intelligence, and perhaps Artificial Super Intelligence.
  • Anti-Capitalism. I predict there will be stories pointing out, in fictional form, the deficiencies of capitalism. Anti-capitalist themes may only form the backdrop of the story, but they will be there.
  • China. In 2021, I see an uptick in scifi books involving China in some way. Some will be written by Chinese authors, and some stories will be set in China.
  • Fewer Aliens. Alien tales are out in 2021. Of the few that will be published, they will involve communication only, not visitations, let alone abductions or invasions.
  • Urban Scifi. Paralleling the urban fantasy subgenre, we’ll see a lot of scifi books in 2021 that start out in a modern-day city setting, and go from there.

Personal Predictions

Here are three other prophesies for 2021, but these involve me in some way:

  • The Seastead Chronicles, my collection of short stories about the future history of seasteading, will be published in 2021.
  • The North American Jules Verne Society will publish its first anthology of short stories, (working title: Extraordinary Visions: Stories Inspired by Jules Verne) all inspired by Jules Verne, in 2021, and I’ll be on the editorial team. You can write a story for it. Click here for details.
  • Pole to Pole Publishing will put out an anthology of reprinted military science fiction short stories in 2021, titled Re-Enlist. I’ll serve as co-editor of this one. Stay tuned to this blog for more details.

In late December of 2021, I’ll post my assessment of the above predictions, and you’ll see there’s no better reader of tarot cards than—

Poseidon’s Scribe

December 27, 2020Permalink

Looking Back, My 2020 Predictions Assessed

My dream of a career as a prognosticator has gone seriously awry…again. At the end of last year, using tea leaves, I made several predictions about the direction of science fiction in 2020. Let’s see how I did.

  • Prediction: SciFi will become more political in this U.S. election year [2020]. With the citizenry becoming increasingly partisan, authors will show their political biases and opinions in their stories. Stories will increasingly be either left/liberal or right/conservative.
    • Assessment: I saw no real evidence of this.  
  • Prediction: With the decline and death of the dystopia will come the birth of a more hopeful and positive future. We’ll see more stories of civilizations rising from the ashes of past global destruction.
    • Assessment: I’m not sure about the hopeful and positive part, but there were some post-apocalyptic novels in 2020, like The Book of Koli by M.R. Carey and The Ministry for the Future by Kim Stanley Robinson.
  • Prediction: Despite the risk of paradox, authors will give us more time-traveling protagonists heading off to the past or future. Most of these time travel stories will involve romance to some degree.
    • Assessment: I didn’t see a lot of time travel novels, but two scifi time travel movies got released this year: Tenet, and Bill & Ted Face the Music.
  • Prediction: Climate Fiction, or CliFi, will remain a strong sub-genre, with authors exploring humanity’s influence on the Earth’s climate. I predict most such stories will either deal with human attempts to fix the climate before a catastrophe or will take place after a climate catastrophe.
    • Assessment: I was right about CliFi remaining strong, as evidenced by The New Wilderness by Diane Cook, The Relentless Moon by Mary Robinette Kowal, and Eden by Tim Lebbon.
  • Prediction: More protagonists and other major characters will be part of the LGBTQ spectrum. Within these fictional worlds, the cisgendered characters will respect and admire the LGBTQ main characters, not ostracize or mistreat them. Other related works will continue to take place in transhuman, post-gender worlds.
    • Assessment: Admittedly, this was an easy call anyone could have made, and I was right. Examples include Finna by Nino Cipri, Unconquerable Sun by Kate Elliott, and The Space Between Worlds by Micaiah Johnson.
  • Prediction: SciFi authors will continue to explore various subtleties and nuances of the Strong Female character in 2020.
    • Assessment: This was another easy prediction, and I was right again. I would say more than half the scifi novels of 2020 featured Strong Female protagonists. In fact, Goldilocks by Laura Lam features a ship with an all-female crew.
  • Prediction: With the completion of the triple trilogy “Skywalker Saga” in 2019, authors will pen stories reacting to all things Star Wars. In 2020, I anticipate stories satirizing and otherwise mocking aspects of the George Lucas-created franchise, and probably other SciFi fantasies trying to fill the void by launching Star Wars variants.
    • Assessment: Wrong. I saw no evidence of this.
  • Prediction: Authors in 2020 will weave tales comporting with Afrofuturism 2.0 and Astro-blackness. Audience reaction to the 2018 film Black Panther demonstrated a strong enthusiasm for works merging the themes of the African Diaspora with high technology.
    • Assessment: Wrong. I saw no evidence of this.
  • Prediction: I see some Boomer Lit SciFi in 2020 examining baby boomer themes. This will include stories with older protagonists, as well as stories with strong 1960s nostalgic references.
    • Assessment: Wrong. I saw no evidence of this.

Maybe I used the wrong brand of tea. Be sure to read next week’s post, where you’ll see spot-on predictions about the scifi you’ll be reading in 2021, all high-quality prophesies by—

Poseidon’s Scribe

December 20, 2020Permalink

9 SciFi Predictions for 2020

Continuing the tradition established last year, I’ll make some predictions for science fiction for the coming year.

First, however, I have an update on Twenty Thousand Leagues Remembered, the upcoming anthology I’m co-editing along with the talented writer and editor Kelly A. Harmon of Pole to Pole Publishing. We’ve moved the opening date for submissions to January 10. Click here for details.

Back, now, to the prognostications. Abandoning my crystal ball, which didn’t work so well, I’ve since mastered the technique of Tasseography, or reading tea leaves. Let’s peer into the cup and see what the leaves reveal:

  • Partisan Politics. SciFi will become more political in this U.S. election year. With the citizenry becoming increasingly partisan, authors will show their political biases and opinions in their stories. Stories will increasingly be either left/liberal or right/conservative. This trend disturbs me, but I have to call ‘em as I see ‘em.
  • Post-Apocalypse. With the decline and death of the dystopia will come the birth of a more hopeful and positive future. We’ll see more stories of civilizations rising from the ashes of past global destruction.
  • Time Travel. There are plenty of time periods left to explore, many with subtle lessons for us today. Despite the risk of paradox, authors will give us more time-traveling protagonists heading off to the past or future. Most of these stories will involve romance to some degree.
  • Climate Fiction. CliFi will remain a strong sub-genre, with authors exploring humanity’s influence on the Earth’s climate. I predict most such stories will either deal with human attempts to fix the climate before a catastrophe or will take place after a climate catastrophe.
  • LBGTQ characters. More protagonists and other major characters will be part of the LGBTQ spectrum. Within these fictional worlds, the cisgendered characters will respect and admire the LGBTQ main characters, not ostracize or mistreat them. Other related works will continue to take place in transhuman, post-gender worlds.
  • Strong Female. The damsel in distress is dead. During the last decade or two, she’s been replaced by the Strong Female. This woman is strong in the sense of being fierce, capable, and not dependent on men. Though by now she’s a stock character, SciFi authors will continue to explore various subtleties and nuances of the Strong Female in 2020.
  • Star Wars Reaction. With the completion of the triple trilogy “Skywalker Saga” in 2019, authors will pen stories reacting to all things Star Wars. In 2020, I anticipate stories satirizing and otherwise mocking aspects of the George Lucas-created franchise, and probably other SciFi fantasies trying to fill the void by launching Star Wars variants.
  • Afrofuturism. Authors in 2020 will weave tales comporting with Afrofuturism 2.0 and Astro-blackness. Audience reaction to the 2018 film Black Panther demonstrated a strong enthusiasm for works merging the themes of the African Diaspora with high technology.
  • Boomer Lit. I see some SciFi in 2020 examining baby boomer themes. This will include stories with older protagonists, as well as stories with strong 1960s nostalgic references.

At the end of 2020, I’ll make every effort to assess these predictions, as I did for my 2019 prophecies. Yogi Berra said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future,” but I have confidence in the tea leaves, so you should have confidence in the prognostication prowess of—

Poseidon’s Scribe

December 29, 2019Permalink

Looking Back, My 2019 Predictions Assessed

A year ago, I made several predictions about what would happen in 2019. It’s time to assess my skill as a prognosticator.

Like any good soothsayer, I worded some of my predictions so that it’s difficult to say whether they came true or not. Also, I don’t have access to solid data that would confirm whether some came true or not. Still, here goes:

  • Prediction: In 2019, you’ll see more science fiction books written by authors from previously underrepresented groups (women, people of color, LGBTQ, etc.) and these books will explore concepts of belonging and isolation, as well as bending our current notions of gender and race.
    • Assessment: I think this one came true. Certainly 2019 saw the publication of SciFi novels written by women such as Elizabeth Bear, Margaret Atwood, Sarah Pinsker; and people of color such as Cadwell Turnbull, Tade Thompson, and Chen Qiufan; and self-identified members of the LGBTQ community such as Charlie Jane Anders, Annalee Newitz, and C.J. Cherryh. I haven’t verified the second part of my prediction, but I suspect it’s true.
  • Prediction: The superhero theme in movies will peak and begin a gradual decline. It’s been an amazing ride, but I believe the market has saturated and audiences are getting tired.
    • Assessment: It’s too early to tell if I was right. Four superhero movies came out in 2019 compared to seven in 2018, but one of them, Avengers Endgame, was the highest grossing film of all time.
  • Prediction: Very few, if any, best-selling scifi books will feature faster-than-light drive. Most authors have accepted Einstein’s speed of light limit. FTL now seems hokey to readers.
    • Assessment: I don’t have good data on this. Tiamat’s Wrath (Expanse #8) by James S. A. Corey contains gates to other star systems. Alliance Rising by C. J. Cherryh and Jane S. Fancher contains FTL with jump points. Obviously, FTL hasn’t gone away in SciFi, but it’s hard to say if it’s on a downward trend.
  • Prediction: Having already peaked, the steampunk and alternate history genres will continue to wane in books and movies, though they may retain strength in the video gaming world. This genre trend in books is troubling to me, since I enjoy writing steampunk and other alternative history.
    • Assessment: I got that one very wrong. Several good Steampunk novels came out in 2019, including The Secret Chapter (The Invisible Library #6) by Genevieve Cogman; Made Things (Made Things #1) by Adrian Tchaikovsky; Counter Culture by J.L. Merrow; Tarnished Are the Stars by Rosiee Thor; The Light at the Bottom of the World (The Light at the Bottom of the World #1) by London Shah; The Sinister Mystery of the Mesmerizing Girl (The Extraordinary Adventures of the Athena Club #3) by Theodora Goss; and White Hornet (The Viper and the Urchin #5) by Celine Jeanjean)
  • Prediction: We’ll see more Solarpunk, and the Punk Family will grow by a few more. I think there’s a great deal of uncharted territory in the solarpunk genre and a general hunger for it among readers. Most new ‘punks’ added in 2019 will be future-based, rather than alternative histories.
    • Assessment: Again, this prediction’s hard to evaluate. Certainly, The Weight of Light: A Collection of Solar Futures, edited by Clark A. Miller and Joey Eschrich is solarpunk and some have likewise classified Emergency Skin (Forward Collection #3) by N.K. Jemisin; and All City by Alex DiFrancesco as solarpunk. As to new ‘punks’ being added in 2019, I haven’t seen evidence of that.
  • Prediction: There will be fewer dystopian young adult books, and there will be an upsurge in YA depicting a positive (though not utopian) future. I think dystopias have run their course for the time being, and readers are ready for less bleak outlooks.
    • Assessment: I think there were fewer dystopian YA books in 2019, but among them were Internment by Samira Ahmed; The Farm, by Joanne Ramos; and The Water Cure by Sophie Mackintosh. Certainly, Peyton Skoczylas thinks this genre has run its course. However, I didn’t sense an upsurge in 2019 of YA SciFi involving positive futures.
  • Prediction: Overall, as a genre, science fiction will do well in the visual media of movies, video games, and graphic novels, but not in traditional book form. Plenty of authors enjoy writing scifi, but readers will turn away from this genre in greater numbers. This is another prediction I find personally disappointing.
    • Assessment: I couldn’t find data to confirm or deny the truth of this prediction. Plenty of authors did produce SciFi in 2019, but whether readership or revenues went up or down, I don’t know. SciFi in movies, video games, and graphic novels remained strong.
  • Prediction: The trend toward series novels will remain strong. Once modern readers make an emotional investment in a set of characters and their fictional world, they want to know what happens after the first novel, and after the next.
    • Assessment: I nailed this one. In addition to the series novels mentioned above, Moon Rising (Luna #3) by Ian McDonald, Atlas Alone (Planetfall #4) by Emma Newman, Dark Age (Red Rising Saga #5) by Pierce Brown, and several other series novels were published in 2019.

Like the best oracle, my results are an ambiguous mixed bag, subject to interpretation. Perhaps I didn’t do so badly after all. Next week, check this space for predictions about 2020 by—

Poseidon’s Scribe

December 22, 2019Permalink