Category Archives: Predictions

9 SciFi Predictions for 2021

I know, I know, when I used a crystal ball two years ago, my predictions didn’t pan out. Then when I read tea leaves last year, my prognostications were in error. But you can believe me this year. I’m using SciFi tarot cards to predict what will happen in 2021.

The cards can’t possibly be wrong. Here are my predictions for science fiction books in the year 2021:

  • Disease Stories. Inspired by the COVID-19 virus, there will be stories of even deadlier diseases, perhaps intelligent diseases. I see stories of pandemics, extreme isolation, and how characters deal with mass death.
  • Rebirth. I foresee stories of characters getting back to normal after pandemics, stories about the rebirth of society.
  • Private Space Exploration. Inspired by Space-X, stories of space travel will involve companies, not governments.
  • Humor. There will be a surge in funny scifi, mainly because we can all use it right now.
  • Artificial Intelligence. Writers in 2021 will continue to explore this topic as they have for decades, but with greater urgency as computer scientists get closer and closer to developing Artificial General Intelligence, and perhaps Artificial Super Intelligence.
  • Anti-Capitalism. I predict there will be stories pointing out, in fictional form, the deficiencies of capitalism. Anti-capitalist themes may only form the backdrop of the story, but they will be there.
  • China. In 2021, I see an uptick in scifi books involving China in some way. Some will be written by Chinese authors, and some stories will be set in China.
  • Fewer Aliens. Alien tales are out in 2021. Of the few that will be published, they will involve communication only, not visitations, let alone abductions or invasions.
  • Urban Scifi. Paralleling the urban fantasy subgenre, we’ll see a lot of scifi books in 2021 that start out in a modern-day city setting, and go from there.

Personal Predictions

Here are three other prophesies for 2021, but these involve me in some way:

  • The Seastead Chronicles, my collection of short stories about the future history of seasteading, will be published in 2021.
  • The North American Jules Verne Society will publish its first anthology of short stories, (working title: Extraordinary Visions: Stories Inspired by Jules Verne) all inspired by Jules Verne, in 2021, and I’ll be on the editorial team. You can write a story for it. Click here for details.
  • Pole to Pole Publishing will put out an anthology of reprinted military science fiction short stories in 2021, titled Re-Enlist. I’ll serve as co-editor of this one. Stay tuned to this blog for more details.

In late December of 2021, I’ll post my assessment of the above predictions, and you’ll see there’s no better reader of tarot cards than—

Poseidon’s Scribe

December 27, 2020Permalink

Looking Back, My 2020 Predictions Assessed

My dream of a career as a prognosticator has gone seriously awry…again. At the end of last year, using tea leaves, I made several predictions about the direction of science fiction in 2020. Let’s see how I did.

  • Prediction: SciFi will become more political in this U.S. election year [2020]. With the citizenry becoming increasingly partisan, authors will show their political biases and opinions in their stories. Stories will increasingly be either left/liberal or right/conservative.
    • Assessment: I saw no real evidence of this.  
  • Prediction: With the decline and death of the dystopia will come the birth of a more hopeful and positive future. We’ll see more stories of civilizations rising from the ashes of past global destruction.
    • Assessment: I’m not sure about the hopeful and positive part, but there were some post-apocalyptic novels in 2020, like The Book of Koli by M.R. Carey and The Ministry for the Future by Kim Stanley Robinson.
  • Prediction: Despite the risk of paradox, authors will give us more time-traveling protagonists heading off to the past or future. Most of these time travel stories will involve romance to some degree.
    • Assessment: I didn’t see a lot of time travel novels, but two scifi time travel movies got released this year: Tenet, and Bill & Ted Face the Music.
  • Prediction: Climate Fiction, or CliFi, will remain a strong sub-genre, with authors exploring humanity’s influence on the Earth’s climate. I predict most such stories will either deal with human attempts to fix the climate before a catastrophe or will take place after a climate catastrophe.
    • Assessment: I was right about CliFi remaining strong, as evidenced by The New Wilderness by Diane Cook, The Relentless Moon by Mary Robinette Kowal, and Eden by Tim Lebbon.
  • Prediction: More protagonists and other major characters will be part of the LGBTQ spectrum. Within these fictional worlds, the cisgendered characters will respect and admire the LGBTQ main characters, not ostracize or mistreat them. Other related works will continue to take place in transhuman, post-gender worlds.
    • Assessment: Admittedly, this was an easy call anyone could have made, and I was right. Examples include Finna by Nino Cipri, Unconquerable Sun by Kate Elliott, and The Space Between Worlds by Micaiah Johnson.
  • Prediction: SciFi authors will continue to explore various subtleties and nuances of the Strong Female character in 2020.
    • Assessment: This was another easy prediction, and I was right again. I would say more than half the scifi novels of 2020 featured Strong Female protagonists. In fact, Goldilocks by Laura Lam features a ship with an all-female crew.
  • Prediction: With the completion of the triple trilogy “Skywalker Saga” in 2019, authors will pen stories reacting to all things Star Wars. In 2020, I anticipate stories satirizing and otherwise mocking aspects of the George Lucas-created franchise, and probably other SciFi fantasies trying to fill the void by launching Star Wars variants.
    • Assessment: Wrong. I saw no evidence of this.
  • Prediction: Authors in 2020 will weave tales comporting with Afrofuturism 2.0 and Astro-blackness. Audience reaction to the 2018 film Black Panther demonstrated a strong enthusiasm for works merging the themes of the African Diaspora with high technology.
    • Assessment: Wrong. I saw no evidence of this.
  • Prediction: I see some Boomer Lit SciFi in 2020 examining baby boomer themes. This will include stories with older protagonists, as well as stories with strong 1960s nostalgic references.
    • Assessment: Wrong. I saw no evidence of this.

Maybe I used the wrong brand of tea. Be sure to read next week’s post, where you’ll see spot-on predictions about the scifi you’ll be reading in 2021, all high-quality prophesies by—

Poseidon’s Scribe

December 20, 2020Permalink

9 SciFi Predictions for 2020

Continuing the tradition established last year, I’ll make some predictions for science fiction for the coming year.

First, however, I have an update on Twenty Thousand Leagues Remembered, the upcoming anthology I’m co-editing along with the talented writer and editor Kelly A. Harmon of Pole to Pole Publishing. We’ve moved the opening date for submissions to January 10. Click here for details.

Back, now, to the prognostications. Abandoning my crystal ball, which didn’t work so well, I’ve since mastered the technique of Tasseography, or reading tea leaves. Let’s peer into the cup and see what the leaves reveal:

  • Partisan Politics. SciFi will become more political in this U.S. election year. With the citizenry becoming increasingly partisan, authors will show their political biases and opinions in their stories. Stories will increasingly be either left/liberal or right/conservative. This trend disturbs me, but I have to call ‘em as I see ‘em.
  • Post-Apocalypse. With the decline and death of the dystopia will come the birth of a more hopeful and positive future. We’ll see more stories of civilizations rising from the ashes of past global destruction.
  • Time Travel. There are plenty of time periods left to explore, many with subtle lessons for us today. Despite the risk of paradox, authors will give us more time-traveling protagonists heading off to the past or future. Most of these stories will involve romance to some degree.
  • Climate Fiction. CliFi will remain a strong sub-genre, with authors exploring humanity’s influence on the Earth’s climate. I predict most such stories will either deal with human attempts to fix the climate before a catastrophe or will take place after a climate catastrophe.
  • LBGTQ characters. More protagonists and other major characters will be part of the LGBTQ spectrum. Within these fictional worlds, the cisgendered characters will respect and admire the LGBTQ main characters, not ostracize or mistreat them. Other related works will continue to take place in transhuman, post-gender worlds.
  • Strong Female. The damsel in distress is dead. During the last decade or two, she’s been replaced by the Strong Female. This woman is strong in the sense of being fierce, capable, and not dependent on men. Though by now she’s a stock character, SciFi authors will continue to explore various subtleties and nuances of the Strong Female in 2020.
  • Star Wars Reaction. With the completion of the triple trilogy “Skywalker Saga” in 2019, authors will pen stories reacting to all things Star Wars. In 2020, I anticipate stories satirizing and otherwise mocking aspects of the George Lucas-created franchise, and probably other SciFi fantasies trying to fill the void by launching Star Wars variants.
  • Afrofuturism. Authors in 2020 will weave tales comporting with Afrofuturism 2.0 and Astro-blackness. Audience reaction to the 2018 film Black Panther demonstrated a strong enthusiasm for works merging the themes of the African Diaspora with high technology.
  • Boomer Lit. I see some SciFi in 2020 examining baby boomer themes. This will include stories with older protagonists, as well as stories with strong 1960s nostalgic references.

At the end of 2020, I’ll make every effort to assess these predictions, as I did for my 2019 prophecies. Yogi Berra said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future,” but I have confidence in the tea leaves, so you should have confidence in the prognostication prowess of—

Poseidon’s Scribe

December 29, 2019Permalink

Looking Back, My 2019 Predictions Assessed

A year ago, I made several predictions about what would happen in 2019. It’s time to assess my skill as a prognosticator.

Like any good soothsayer, I worded some of my predictions so that it’s difficult to say whether they came true or not. Also, I don’t have access to solid data that would confirm whether some came true or not. Still, here goes:

  • Prediction: In 2019, you’ll see more science fiction books written by authors from previously underrepresented groups (women, people of color, LGBTQ, etc.) and these books will explore concepts of belonging and isolation, as well as bending our current notions of gender and race.
    • Assessment: I think this one came true. Certainly 2019 saw the publication of SciFi novels written by women such as Elizabeth Bear, Margaret Atwood, Sarah Pinsker; and people of color such as Cadwell Turnbull, Tade Thompson, and Chen Qiufan; and self-identified members of the LGBTQ community such as Charlie Jane Anders, Annalee Newitz, and C.J. Cherryh. I haven’t verified the second part of my prediction, but I suspect it’s true.
  • Prediction: The superhero theme in movies will peak and begin a gradual decline. It’s been an amazing ride, but I believe the market has saturated and audiences are getting tired.
    • Assessment: It’s too early to tell if I was right. Four superhero movies came out in 2019 compared to seven in 2018, but one of them, Avengers Endgame, was the highest grossing film of all time.
  • Prediction: Very few, if any, best-selling scifi books will feature faster-than-light drive. Most authors have accepted Einstein’s speed of light limit. FTL now seems hokey to readers.
    • Assessment: I don’t have good data on this. Tiamat’s Wrath (Expanse #8) by James S. A. Corey contains gates to other star systems. Alliance Rising by C. J. Cherryh and Jane S. Fancher contains FTL with jump points. Obviously, FTL hasn’t gone away in SciFi, but it’s hard to say if it’s on a downward trend.
  • Prediction: Having already peaked, the steampunk and alternate history genres will continue to wane in books and movies, though they may retain strength in the video gaming world. This genre trend in books is troubling to me, since I enjoy writing steampunk and other alternative history.
    • Assessment: I got that one very wrong. Several good Steampunk novels came out in 2019, including The Secret Chapter (The Invisible Library #6) by Genevieve Cogman; Made Things (Made Things #1) by Adrian Tchaikovsky; Counter Culture by J.L. Merrow; Tarnished Are the Stars by Rosiee Thor; The Light at the Bottom of the World (The Light at the Bottom of the World #1) by London Shah; The Sinister Mystery of the Mesmerizing Girl (The Extraordinary Adventures of the Athena Club #3) by Theodora Goss; and White Hornet (The Viper and the Urchin #5) by Celine Jeanjean)
  • Prediction: We’ll see more Solarpunk, and the Punk Family will grow by a few more. I think there’s a great deal of uncharted territory in the solarpunk genre and a general hunger for it among readers. Most new ‘punks’ added in 2019 will be future-based, rather than alternative histories.
    • Assessment: Again, this prediction’s hard to evaluate. Certainly, The Weight of Light: A Collection of Solar Futures, edited by Clark A. Miller and Joey Eschrich is solarpunk and some have likewise classified Emergency Skin (Forward Collection #3) by N.K. Jemisin; and All City by Alex DiFrancesco as solarpunk. As to new ‘punks’ being added in 2019, I haven’t seen evidence of that.
  • Prediction: There will be fewer dystopian young adult books, and there will be an upsurge in YA depicting a positive (though not utopian) future. I think dystopias have run their course for the time being, and readers are ready for less bleak outlooks.
    • Assessment: I think there were fewer dystopian YA books in 2019, but among them were Internment by Samira Ahmed; The Farm, by Joanne Ramos; and The Water Cure by Sophie Mackintosh. Certainly, Peyton Skoczylas thinks this genre has run its course. However, I didn’t sense an upsurge in 2019 of YA SciFi involving positive futures.
  • Prediction: Overall, as a genre, science fiction will do well in the visual media of movies, video games, and graphic novels, but not in traditional book form. Plenty of authors enjoy writing scifi, but readers will turn away from this genre in greater numbers. This is another prediction I find personally disappointing.
    • Assessment: I couldn’t find data to confirm or deny the truth of this prediction. Plenty of authors did produce SciFi in 2019, but whether readership or revenues went up or down, I don’t know. SciFi in movies, video games, and graphic novels remained strong.
  • Prediction: The trend toward series novels will remain strong. Once modern readers make an emotional investment in a set of characters and their fictional world, they want to know what happens after the first novel, and after the next.
    • Assessment: I nailed this one. In addition to the series novels mentioned above, Moon Rising (Luna #3) by Ian McDonald, Atlas Alone (Planetfall #4) by Emma Newman, Dark Age (Red Rising Saga #5) by Pierce Brown, and several other series novels were published in 2019.

Like the best oracle, my results are an ambiguous mixed bag, subject to interpretation. Perhaps I didn’t do so badly after all. Next week, check this space for predictions about 2020 by—

Poseidon’s Scribe

December 22, 2019Permalink