In an instant of time, a tiny speck of living matter—a virus—has deprived us of many of our closest physical connections. No handshakes, no hugging, and no breathing the same air. The pestilence has isolated us, separated us, left us alone and lonely.
We do have our electronic links, our e-handshakes and e-hugs, if you will. We can see each other through a camera lens, hear others’ voices with that brief but annoying delay. These amazing technological connections are better than nothing, but just aren’t the same as face-to-face presence.
We turn on the news only to see other people, also sitting in their homes staring at their computers’ camera eye, telling us of mounting death tolls, of the disease’s pattern of spread. They warn us to stay in our homes, wear a mask, wash our hands, and remain apart and disconnected.
Is there no escape from the bad news? No spark left of human resilience? No positive examples of people using ingenuity to solve problems? Are there no tales of women or men standing and facing danger with bravery?
Yes, there are. The Coronavirus has taken many things from us, but not our books. Today is World Book Day, and we still have books.
Sure, a TV show or movie can entertain for an hour or two, but a book will enthrall you for days. Moreover, it will engage your imagination to conjure your own images from the words, not spoon-feed ready-made video pictures.
I’ll bet you’ve often thought, “I’ll read that book someday when I have time.” Now, you have time.
Read that book. Let it transport you away from this place of isolation and quarantine. Lose yourself in other lands, other times, and join up with fascinating people, many of whom cope with far greater difficulties than yours. Maybe these characters aren’t people at all, but we all know the literary metaphor—animals, robots, or aliens in stories are really stand-ins for people. They may prevail in their struggle; they may not, but their will to strive onward may inspire you to endure the worst that COVID-19 can inflict.
It’s a fine day to read a book, don’t you think? Happy World Book Day, from—
On TV these days, we’re seeing the insides of a lot of people’s homes. Particularly bookshelves. If you’re an expert being interviewed by the media, it’s important to have an impressive bookshelf as backdrop behind you.
Ah, but what is an ‘impressive’ bookshelf? Let’s explore that today, so you can prepare for your next Skype call from a TV network.
A portion of Poseidon’s Scribe’s bookshelf
I’m not that impressed by bookshelves arranged for show. If it looks like the books sit there for years without being read, that indicates a shelf intended to dazzle others, not to serve the owner.
A useful home bookshelf should have a sense of chaos, of disorder, with some books leaning, and perhaps others left horizontal. That indicates a reverence for books as things to be read, not as props to be displayed.
In Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea, Jules Verne gives Captain Nemo a library aboard the Nautilus intended both to impress Professor Aronnax (and thus, the reader) and to convey a sense of frequent use by an eclectic mind.
Captain Nemo’s bookshelves
“Tall pieces of furniture, made of black rosewood inlaid with copper, contained in their deep shelves a vast number of books uniformly bound…works of science, ethics, literature, in many languages, were in abundance…And, strange to say, these books were not grouped according to the languages they were written in, and the resultant mixture suggested that the captain could read fluently whatever books came to hand, regardless of language.”
(Well, I do have one quibble, Captain Nemo. If the Nautilus takes an angle or encounters rough seas on the surface, most of your books will fall to the floor. Bookshelves aboard the submarines I’ve seen always include moveable restraining bars to keep books in place.)
Cover image for 20,000 Leagues Remembered
This seems a good moment to mention that both I and Kelly A. Harmon of Pole to Pole Publishing are co-editing an upcoming anthology titled 20,000 Leagues Remembered, a collection of short stories intended as a sesquicentennial tribute to Jules Verne’s novel. Submit your own story here.
Returning to the topic of bookshelves, remember—they’re meant to be used, not just seen. If a TV network calls you for a video interview, you’d like to be known as a person who reads, not just owns, books.
If you workfor a news station and want to interview an expert on the use of bookshelves as background, or just desire to interview an interesting author, call me and ask for—
Historians will look back, I believe, at the Coronavirus Pandemic of 2020 as a ‘black swan’ event. For the rest of us, memories of this may fade, but they’ll never go away.
What’s a black swan event? According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, a black swan event has three properties: (1) It is a surprise; (2) It has a major effect; and (3) After it occurs, people consider it to have been inevitable.
We’re still in the middle of the pandemic and the accompanying economic disaster, but I believe they both meet all three criteria. Some have written articles denying this, on the basis of Criteria (1). Medical scientists had warned us about pandemics, they say, and we’ve even had pandemics before. Novels and movies about disease outbreaks were warnings, too.
No. For most of us, the COVID-19 outbreak and the economic shutdown came as a sudden shock. If anything, those who deny this pandemic is a black swan are just proving it satisfies Criteria (3). It’s to be expected that some will claim we should have known.
Let’s get beyond that. I’m less interested in arguing about criteria than in what we do now. How do black swan events change us? How do we prepare for future ones?
When this is over, I believe most people will revert back to their pre-virus lives without much change. They might wash their hands more often, but that’s about it. They’ll go to concerts, sporting events, and church. They’ll shake hands. They’ll fly on planes.
However, for everyone now alive, this pandemic will linger on in memory. It can’t un-happen for us. We’ll think about it when we meet strangers, when we buy toilet paper, when we choose investments or apply for our next job. No matter what we do from now on, a corner of our mind will remind us of the risks we’re taking. Future generations will shake their heads at our curious hygiene fixations and risk-averse financial strategies.
For us, that small voice in our head, that conscience, represents part of the solution to the Black Swan problem. As Taleb recommended, you should make decisions that allow you to exploit positive events while still guarding against black swans.
In other words, hug your family, but fist-bump strangers. Go to the basketball game, but don’t scratch that nose itch until you’ve washed your hands. Invest some of your portfolio in stocks, but keep some money in safer accounts. Take that job aboard a cruise ship, but keep your list of grocery store contacts.
Despite their low probability, black swan events happen. The Stock Market Crash of 1929, Pearl Harbor, the Kennedy Assassination, 9-11, and Coronavirus 2020 are all examples, but more await us in the future. They’ll be unpredictable, significant, and, afterward, strangely inevitable.
You can’t plan for what you can’t predict. But reserving a few resources for imaginable worst-case scenarios might prove wise if the worst case comes to pass.
One more thought about black swan events. As a species, we’ve survived them all. No matter what the future hurls at us, we’ll be inventive and adaptable. We’ll fight our way through. We’ll come out the other side—roughed up, perhaps—but standing tall.
Welcome to the battle for the future. In this corner, you’ve got a black swan. And in this corner, the entire human race. Let’s get ready to rumble! With all my money bet on the humans, I’m—
You still have time to submit a short story to the upcoming anthology, 20,000 Leagues Remembered. This book will be a sesquicentennial tribute to Jules Verne’s novel.
Cover Image for 20,000 Leagues Remembered
I’m co-editing this anthology along with Kelly A. Harmon of Pole to Pole Publishing. We’re received and accepted a number of fine stories already.
However, we still have room for two or three more. For us to accept your submission, your story:
• must pay tribute in some way to Jules Verne’s novel;
• may be set in any time or place;
• may use characters from Verne’s novel or you can make up your own;
• need not be written in Verne’s style;
• need not be ‘dark’ (as stories in other Pole to Pole Publishing anthologies have been);
• must capture, in your own way, the sense of wonder and adventure for which Jules Verne is famous;
• demonstrate a significant and obvious connection with Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea; and
• must not disparage either the novel or its author.
Come on. You’re sitting at home anyway. You might as well type up a story and send it here.
Your story might well be the next one accepted by—
Let’s take a break from the unpleasant coronavirus news of the present, and travel to the future. Specifically, let’s see how our descendants might prevent or deal with pandemic viral outbreaks.
Futuristic Caduceus
Speculation about the future is always error-prone. Many technologies I’ll mention won’t pan out, or will introduce unforeseen problems. Also, these probably won’t eliminate the existence of viruses; new ones will mutate to get around our best efforts to defeat them. Still, those concerns never stop a SciFi writer from imagining! With that in mind, let’s time-travel.
Getting Infected
People used to pick up viruses mostly from the animal world. Now, in the future, there is less opportunity for doing that. Synthetic foods have lessened the need for humans to consume wildlife. High crop yield technologies mean we need less farmland, so we no longer destroy habitats, thus keeping wildlife in their own areas.
Other technologies have rendered humans immune to most viruses. These technologies include artificial immune systems, implanting favorable animal genes within humans, and designer babies.
Infecting Others
If someone does pick up a virus in this future time, advanced filters in building ventilation systems lessen the spread. Workplaces and transit systems contain sensors that detect whether occupants are running a fever, and alert them. Bathrooms include automated hand washing machines. Facemasks use fabrics that prohibit the flow of pathogens or bacteria in either direction. Some have opted for nasal and throat implants to do the same thing.
Alerting the World
Upon discovery of a novel virus, doctors in this future world have new ways to notify other experts. Chatbots share the information instantly. Universal translators ensure precise understanding.
Sensing Infections
Various technologies have enabled people to know at once if they’re infected, long before they feel symptoms. These include home-use scanners, (inspired by Star Trek medical tricorders) wearable and implantable sensors, digital tattoos, genetic diagnosis, and nano-med-robots.
Developing Cures
Today, in our future world, supercomputers work on vaccines immediately after notification of a novel virus. They employ advanced modeling to test the effects of drugs virtually, and in many cases can skip time-consuming animal and human trials. Resulting vaccines are then personalized, tuned to individual body chemistries.
Getting Treatment
People no longer go to a doctor’s office or hospital. Medical care is virtual now, with human doctors remaining remote. Drones deliver food and medical supplies. Robots provide in-home care, including cleaning, examining, and operating. 3-D printers manufacture pain medication in the home, meds that are tailored to the subject and provide instant relief. Recovery makes use of gaming therapy, with virtual reality helping to relax the patient’s mind.
On the near horizon is the long-sought ‘autodoc,’ a staple of 20th Century science fiction—an enclosure you climb into that cures all ills.
Tracking the Spread
Artificially intelligent algorithms conduct contact tracing analysis to map the spread of the virus, notifying people they’ve come in contact with a virus carrier. Through the use of augmented reality, virtual reality, and mixed reality, experts can track and forecast outbreaks as hotspots emerge. These same technologies permit rapid identification of the most at-risk individuals.
Isolating the Infected
As in previous ages, governments still vary in the degree of freedom allowed to individuals. Some are more coercive in enforcing quarantines than others. But artificial intelligence at least allows informed decisions based on contact tracing and mathematical modeling. Moreover, citizens have access to real-time fact-checking to distinguish truth from propaganda or bias.
Back to the Present
Unfortunately, that ends our trip to the future and we’re back in 2020 now. I know, it’s disorienting and humbling. Still, imagine a time traveler from fifty or a hundred years ago visiting our time and being equally amazed at the medical wonders we now take for granted.
